NORTH PLAINFIELD, NJ-It may be a bit hard to reflect on this amidst July's swelter, but it was evidently the coolness of spring and off-and-on rain last Memorial Day that dampened retail sales and traffic in the second quarter of the year.

Levin Management reports less-than-anticipated year-to-date sales and traffic for some retailers within its 90-property portfolio – and attributed mostly to the weather. The trend ran counter to national reports on retail markets for the spring months.

On the other hand, the pace of hiring during the first half of 2013 and the positive impact of e-commerce were noted in Levin's most recent polling of retailer sentiment.

In the survey of store managers, conducted in late May and early June, only 44% of respondents said year-to-date sales were equal to or higher than last year during the same period. Only 39% said traffic was the same or higher.

Last year, 64% reported same or higher year-over-year sales and 63% percent reported same or higher traffic. Also, 37.5% said their Memorial Day sales were the same or higher than in 2012, while 59% had said they did better in 2012 than in 2011.

The trends run counter to the U.S. Census Bureau's June 13 report that nationwide retail and food services sales for March through May 2013 were up 3.7% over last year and May sales were up 4.3%. The International Council of Shopping Centers reported that U.S. chain-store sales were 3.2 % higher in May 2013 as compared to May 2012.

In the Levin sample, retailers' optimism seemed to be waning:

35% said they expect sales to improve through the end of the year, compared to 49% last year.
25% expect status quo, compared to 43% last year.
29% worry that sales will decrease, compared to 8.5% in 2012.
11.5% said they were uncertain.

“Coming off a positive year in 2012, retailers were predicting that 2013 would maintain a strong pace,” said Matthew K. Harding, president of the retail property management firm. “It looks like performance for many of our survey participants came in below expectations, and they have become more cautious in terms of expectations.”

Still, a third of poll respondents said they have added staff so far this year, up from 26% who said the same last year at mid-year, and 13% in 2011. That is in line with national trends:. According to U.S. Labor statistics, retail trade jobs increased nationally by 27,700 in May 2013 – nearly triple the results in May 2012 when just 9,400 retail jobs were added.

Going forward, only 28% of Levin respondents said they expect to add staff. That number is down from 36% in the 2012 mid-year survey; those saying they have plans to open new stores also dropped to 23% from 28% last year.

Instant Insights /

Retailers' Spirits Caught a Spring Chill

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