NEW YORK CITY-Great change is afoot in real estate, and investors have many opportunities to take advantage of that, but they could also get burned if they don't invest wisely. That was the key message of the Eisner/Amper Real Estate Private Equity Summit, which was held Tuesday in midtown Manhattan.

“This is the first time in some time that real estate is seeing a change,” said David Lichtenstein, chairman, the Lightstone Group.“If you can see where the change is going, think about how you can take advantage of it.”

However, advised Dean Adler, CEO and co-founder Lubert-Adler, “Whatever decision you make today, you have to keep in mind the fact that you're preparing for a more hostile environment. Interest rates, cap rates and supply are all going to increase.”

Cautioned Joseph Azrack, chairman, Apollo Global Real Estate Management, “For most investors, a mid-teen return with some leverage [is a good target]. But if you look at where capital is coming from—large pension and sovereign wealth funds, high net worth individuals and, in the next few years, large 401K plans—the emphasis on high IRRs is going to change.”

Noted Adam Schwartz, managing director, Angelo Gordon, “2006 and 2007 were driven by high leverage, but today it's cheap leverage. Though we're moving back toward excessive with all the mezzanine funds that have started. Just because the leverage is there, that shouldn't be the driver of your underwriting and returns.”

Added Richard Saltzman, president, Colony Capital, “Leverage can be a two edged sword. The market is moving up, and equity returns can be enhanced, but at the other end, you can get in trouble. There could be secular changes afoot.”

Some investors expressed a bullish sentiment on retail, while others are staying far away from the sector. “We like retail,” said William Kahane, president and COO, American Realty Capital.“And the retail investor is now looking away from fixed income to more durable types of income that are somewhat inflation protected.”

Thor Equities CEO Joseph Sitt had a different take. “Retailers like J.C. Penney and K-Mart are getting slaughtered. But the T.J Max's of the world are doing well. People are still buying big ticket items, but they're hocking themselves to do it, so that impacts other purchases, whether it's bread and butter or winter coats for their kids.”

Others were even more bearish. “Sears is an accident waiting to happen,” said Lichtenstein. “Stores like Radio Shack and Barnes & Noble—they're on life support. We're going to see a lot of retail going dark in the next few years.”

Even more ominously, said Kahane, “We wont buy a Best Buy because as good as it is, the model is outdated. If people can order it faster, cheaper and better on the Internet, they will.”

Urbanization was also a big topic of discussion. “The urbanization of the US is real, as is the change in how people use space,” said Richard Mack, CEO, Mack Real Estate Group. “The day of three to four people per 1,000 square feet coming to an end. As we move to eight people per 1,000, suburban office buildings may need less space but more bathrooms and parking. But if a buyer holds that asset too long, I guarantee you that someone is going to buy the building next door.”

Speakers also championed investing in the technology and energy sectors, while they were mixed on hospitality, Europe and even multifamily and mixed-use development.

“Just because you're building over a Whole Foods doesn't mean your apartments will do well,” noted Mack. “And with the planning, development, building and lesing, everything is multiplied in terms of complexity. But if you do everything right, a mixed-use project is a strong asset.”

And it's about more than the value of the asset, asserted Jeffrey Horwitz, partner, Proskauer Rose. “A lot of this is about timing, not a great idea, because people have taken those over a cliff. The water is moving around, you have to catch the wave.”

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For Real Estate Investors, the Right Time is Now

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