WASHINGTON, DC-At the beginning of the month the Labor Department did not release its unemployment figures for September due to the federal shutdown. Other, less-high profile stats have also been temporarily shelved as well.

The Carlyle Group has stepped into the breach making its own pulse on the economy public. The asset manager, which gathers data from its global portfolio of more than 200 companies, has released certain proprietary U.S. economic indicators that it says could serve as a stand-in for the missing federal government statistics.

"Our economic indicators identify trends and inflection points to help us make better investment decisions," Carlyle Chief Economist Jason Thomas says in a prepared statement. "However, several of our monthly data series are highly correlated with, and therefore may serve as reliable proxies for, U.S. official data that are not currently reported due to the government shutdown."

The firm bases its projections on such company data as orders, shipments and occupancy rates and then calibrates these data to make larger industry-wide projections. It gives the example of extrapolating from a 1% increase in telecom equipment orders what overall business spending will be.

Consider, for example, the September retail sales figure that the Census Bureau would have reported on Friday, Oct. 11.

Carlyle's data suggest that September retail sales increased at a 0.25% monthly rate. It bases that estimate on appliance production data derived from a U.S.-based Carlyle portfolio company.

This 0.25% gain follows a 0.2% increase in August and a 0.4% gain in July. Overall, Carlyle estimates retail sales are expanding at a 2.6% annual growth rate in real terms. Over the past 33 months, the correlation between the monthly variation in Carlyle's portfolio company's data and official government retail sales data has been 77.5%.

Here are Carlyle's projections for the next few data series due out from the government.

September Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Due on Oct. 16 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Carlyle's data suggests that September CPI was 1.55% higher than in September 2012. This estimate is based on U.S. portfolio data on monthly changes in input prices and transportation costs. Over the last 33 months, the monthly variation in Carlyle's index of input and transportation costs has explained 79.8% of the variation in the CPI.

September New Residential Construction

Due on Oct. 17 by the Census Bureau. Carlyle's data suggest that housing starts are running at a 913,000 annual rate. This estimate is based on demand for lumber used in housing construction taken from a U.S.-based Carlyle portfolio company. Over the last 57 months, Carlyle's proprietary indicator has been 94% correlated with official housing starts.

September Durable Goods Orders

Due on Oct. 25 by the Census Bureau. Carlyle's data suggest that core capital goods orders increased by 6.6% year/year to $68.6 billion. This estimate is based on telecommunications orders received by a U.S.-based Carlyle portfolio company. Over the past 57 months, the variation in enterprise sales has been 80.8% correlated with the variation in core capital spending by businesses.

Q3-2013 GDP

Due on Oct. 30 by Bureau of Economic Analysis. Carlyle believes that U.S. GDP expanded at a 1.7% annual rate in Q3 of 2013. It is basing its estimate on the total number of cargo containers "lifted" on or off rail cars at more than 50 facilities across the U.S. and Mexico. Cargo container volumes track gross domestic shipments and trade volumes and have been 80.2% correlated with U.S. real GDP over the past 93 months.

Instant Insights /

Carlyle Group Steps into Gov't Void with Its Own Economic Stats

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