IRVINE, CA-The US office market recovery has remained slow, tepid and lethargic for several years now, and unfortunately the same batch of adjectives is still apt. However, the general malaise in US office fundamentals continues to hide the significant divergences taking place in metros across the country.

Metros with strong local economies driving demand have seen the largest improvement, such as Fort Worth, Portland, Nashville and San Antonio.  Metros with weak economies are seeing availability rise as they fail to generate absorption, including Memphis and Cleveland.  Northern Virginia and Tampa are seeing rising vacancies due to large supply additions that have occurred in the last two quarters. Despite only modest improvement in national office fundamentals, the majority of markets are now seeing increases in office supply, limiting potential improvements in vacancies.  42 of the 51 major US office markets saw some supply addition over the last two quarters, a significant uptick.  The average metro saw 0.5% added to office stock, however nine metros saw more than 1% added to stock and Suburban Maryland, Salt Lake City and San Jose saw roughly 2% added to their office supply.

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Only six office markets saw effective rents decline over the first quarters of 2013, and none of them saw a decline of greater than 0.5%.  These weaker markets are typified by metros whose economies were decimated by the housing bubble (Las Vegas, Riverside and Sacramento) or suburbs of New York City (Northern NJ and Long Island) that are struggling to reduce the level of availability in the market. The strongest rent increases are occurring in the city-states of the Bay Area and New York City and the robust metros in Texas, which are generating robust absorption due to their roaring local economies.  Seattle is also seeing robust growth due to its strong local economy.

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The regional differences in performance are likely to persist as economic performance varies metro-by-metro, but when aggregated to the US level this will continue to paint a picture of a slow and grinding recovery. However, we should look toward local market indicators since comprehensive reports on the office market tend to blanket more granular differences.

Peter Muoio Ph. D. is a managing director at Auction.com and is head of the Auction.com Research Center team. He is a veteran of the real estate industry and founder of the research and consulting firm Maximus Advisors, which Auction.com acquired in December 2012. The views expressed in this column are the author's own.

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