WASHINGTON, DC-US commercial real estate markets absorbed 51.3 million square feet of office space in 2013, a slight improvement over the 50.1 million registered in 2012, according to Cassidy Turley figures. On its own, the increase does not seem that significant. However, it follows year after year of slow but incremental growth the upshot of which is this prediction: many markets in the US will likely shift to favor landlords in the second half of 2014. Rents are already rising in half of the US markets, Cassidy Turley reports. Specifically, average asking rents in the fourth quarter of 2013 registered at $22.02, up 1.6% from the same period a year-ago; 46 out of the 80 metros tracked registered rent growth.
"We are at the point where vacancy rates are going to soon reach historical norms," Cassidy Turley Chief Economist Kevin Thorpe tells GlobeSt.com. "2013 was another year of progress and now that we have strung together three years and counting of consistent progress the markets are looking healthy again."
Granted, the markets are not close to that beloved year in the commercial real estate industry—2005--when absorption reached 88.3 million, but it can be fair to argue that that is too high a comparison. The current numbers, though, are still below the 70 million square feet or so that were absorbed on average during the four-year period between 2004 and 2007, Thorpe points out.
Cassidy Turley reports that fourth quarter saw 14.3 million square feet absorbed, down from 15.3 square feet in the third quarter. Vacancy rates in the third quarter fell 20 basis points to 15.1% -- 220 basis points lower than its recessionary-peak of 17.3%.
Landlords are still facing headwinds, of course. Tenants are still rightsizing leases and are likely to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. This can be seen in the employment growth figures. Simply put, the growth in office-related jobs should have translated into more office space taken by tenants. But it hasn't.
"The office sector is not getting the pop in demand from job creation that it should," Thorpe says. Mitigating those influences, however, are other trends, such as the growth in the tech and energy sectors.
Taken as a whole the trends are positive for landlords, Thorpe says. "By this time next year the majority of the country will be pushing office rents upward."
In terms of demand, Cassidy Turley says the top 10 US markets for 2013 were New York, with 7.1 million square feet of net absorption; Dallas, with 4.2 million square feet; Houston, with 3.9 million square feet; San Jose/Silicon Valley with 2.4 million square feet; Atlanta, with 2.3 million square feet; Denver, with 1.9 million square feet; Boston, with 1.7 million square feet; Seattle, with 1.7 million square feet; Chicago, with 1.5 million square feet; and Miami, with 1.3 million square feet.
The top 10 US markets in terms of 2013 rent growth were San Francisco, with 11.8% rent growth; New York, at 9.5%; Denver, with 7.8%; San Jose/Silicon Valley, with 7.3%; Austin, with 7.0%; Dallas, with 5.6%; Salt Lake City, with 5.5%; San Mateo County, at 4.9%; Oakland-East Bay at 4.4%; and San Diego, with 4.3% rent growth.
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