LOS ANGELES-As an avid pilot, sailor, and motorcycle enthusiast, I am not averse to thrills or taking risks. In my 25 years providing commercial real estate services to clients and as an owner myself, I have ridden the upward and downward cycles, observing the risks taken by investors as market conditions fluctuated. In today's multi-residential real estate market, people are facing seemingly low-risk investment options as a result of post-recession interest rates combined with high demand, low supply and rising rents.

Optimism abounds in the Southern California multi-residential business, as starry-eyed apartment owners continue to bathe in the glow of incredibly high demand for housing and the upward pressure this demand is putting on rents. With record-low interest rates, cheap money (even if only expected to be short-term), vacancies hovering around the three percent range and rent increases exceeding the rising costs of ownership, landlords are enjoying the best game in town. The question is, how long will the stars that make up this phenomenon remain in perfect alignment?

As brokers that primarily represent property owners, my partner, Blake Rogers, and I call owners seeking opportunities to position their property for a sale. More often than not we hear the response, “Why now?” or “Rents are rising” or “There is a limited supply of alternative investments to buy.” While largely true at this point in time, the likelihood of these stars staying in perfect alignment is clouded by changes in market conditions that are virtually inevitable. Interest rates will rise, cap rates will follow and owners will have to become sellers. Increased inventory combined with rising interest rates is likely to turn a seller's market into a buyer's market over time.

While it remains speculative as to when interest rates will rise, we know there is a substantial pipeline of new product coming online in Southern California. In some communities there are thousands of units that will become available in 2014 and even more in 2015. These brand-spanking-new buildings will offer amenities that older buildings can't provide and youthful renters will, if they can afford it, move up. More options for renters could lead to competitive rents and eventually, as it has in the past, to rent concessions at some point.

As new product comes into the market, the inventory star will move out of alignment. As interest rates rise, the second star will do the same, adding fuel to a market slowdown and possibly lower property values.

I'm a positive guy, but the market will change in the future as it always does. If you are thinking about cashing in your chips or taking a little off the table to mitigate that risk, think about doing it now. Do it while other starry-eyed investors are willing to pay prices that yield minimal returns today and probably a limited return in the future.

Albert Shilton is Senior Managing Director out of Charles Dunn Company's Century City office. He specializes in the sale of multifamily properties and land for development within Los Angeles and Orange Counties. The views expressed in this column are the author's own.

NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2025 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.