WASHINGTON, DC—“The US economy is currently as strong as it hasever been in this recovery,” writes Kevin Thorpe,chief economist with Cassidy Turley, citing anaccelerating economy and the first signs of wage growth. “With theharsh winter behind us, many indicators are revving up again andfollowing the accelerating pattern we observed in the latter halfof 2013.”
Thorpe's report, which projects economic metrics for the nextfive quarters, projects real GDP growth of at least 3% per quarterthrough mid-2015, along with quarterly growth in office-usingemployment exceeding Q1's total of 145,000 jobs added nationwide.It also projects the Institute for SupplyManagement's Manufacturing Index to exceed 54.0 duringthose quarters.
That assessment squares with ISM's own long-term view. In asurvey also released on Tuesday, ISM said 68% of respondents fromits panel of manufacturing supply management executives predictedtheir revenues would be 9.1% greater in 2014 compared to last year,9% expected a 9.6% and 23% anticipated no change. “This yields anoverall average expectation of 5.3% percent revenue growth amongmanufacturers in 2014, which is a notable increase” of 0.9percentage points in expectations compared to this past December,according to ISM.
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