NEW YORK CITY—Commercial real estate executives seekingreinforcement of the optimistic sentiment permeating today's marketwere in the wrong place Wednesday morning. Economist Dr. SamChandan shared words of concern and caution during a keynote speechat ABS Partners Real Estate's executive economic briefing inMidtown, as did Seth Pinsky, EVP of RXR and former president of thecity's Economic Development Corp.

“Even though it may not feel like it, this month marks thefive-year anniversary of the end of the recession,” noted Chandan.“On average, recoveries have lasted just under five years, so ifthis was an average recovery, then in July we'd be on the cusp ofrecession. This has been different but we need to be cautious.Unless we believe this recovery is an outlier, it's a pretty safebet that within the next 60 months (five years), we'll find astress on activity. If your planned exit from an asset is withinfive years, you're going to face some challenges.”

He also discussed some issues in the housing and labor marketsthat could hurt commercial property. “It's seven or eight yearsafter our most significant housing crisis and the bias towardrenting remains very strong. Housing remains weak and there's aquestion of whether we're building too many apartments.