LOS ANGELES—According to CBRE's Q2 reports, all CRE sectors—industrial, retail, office and apartment—are experiencing increased leasing activity and declining vacancy rates. The performance of these sectors suggests that we are at or nearing full economic recovery.
The office market is perhaps the most impressive performing sector, considering it was the last sector to recover after the economic downtown. In Q2 2014, vacancy rates in suburban office markets fell 40 basis points, reaching 14.5%, while urban office vacancy rates fell by 30 basis points, reaching 11.8% on average. More than 71% of the national markets, or 45 out of 63, experienced declining vacancy rates throughout the quarter. However, 15 markets did experience increasing vacancy rates. Not surprisingly, it was those markets with high concentrations of tech and media companies that performed the best. Overall, CBRE expects office vacancy rates to hit 14.4% by the end of the year.
The retail sector was another slower to recovery, but is now only 150 basis points below its post-recession peak. In Q2 2014, retail vacancy fell 20 basis points to 11.7%, quarter-over-quarter. Tampa, Raleigh, Philadelphia and Charlotte were among the best performing markets, with vacancy rates that fell by 60 basis points, while Cleveland, St. Louis and Salt Lake City saw increasing vacancy rates by at least 40 basis points, compared to Q1 2014.
The industrial and multifamily sectors are the strongest performing. The industrial market has now seen declining availability rates for the past 16 quarters. The availability rate nationally has fallen to 10.8%, with the majority of the sectors either reporting declining or flat availability rates. However, 12 markets did experience increased availability rates. Overall, CBRE expects availability rates to a fall to 10.7% by the end of the year.
The apartment market is still experiencing high demand across the country, and it is continuing to grow at an average rate of 1.4% annually. The vacancy rate fell by 20 basis points year-over-year, reaching low vacancies of 4.4%. The strong demand has also continued to put upward pressure on rental rates, which have been pretty steadily growing at about 2.5% to 3% per year.
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