Development Ramps Up Again in Atlanta: The market office vacancy rate is 17% (down from the mid-20s), but developers are resuming activities, specifically in uptown Buckhead, the city's most desirable submarket. The rationale goes--after a nearly six-year hiatus in construction enough tenants will want the benefits of amenities in new buildings and first out of the ground projects should score. Have we seen this movie before? Too many first out of the ground projects get built, keeping the market chronically oversupplied. If you own a property down the block from any of these projects be worried, especially if you have an older vintage building with leases rolling over in the next two to three years. Get ready for another round of tenant musical chairs, and no owner should want to get left out standing along Peachtree Road.

The Ferguson Dynamic More than a generation ago, poverty and race-related riots were the unwelcome province of inner cities The most notable flare-ups during the 1960s occurred in urban slums in Detroit, Newark, Los Angeles, Brooklyn, and Washington DC. Suburbs back then were the refuge for ensuing white flight. But how times have changed—the suburbs, especially in the inner rings, now concentrate much of the nation's poverty as poorly conceived neighborhoods with aging commodity housing stock suffer severe tax base erosion and offer cheap rents. And many of the same intractable problems, which afflicted inner cities, have followed along—crime, violence, and dysfunctional schools, which only further accelerate community decline. In Ferguson outside St. Louis, the poor population doubled from 2000 to 2010 and became majority African American as the overall population declined five percent during the decade. The same poverty shift phenomenon is occurring around major cities from coast-to-coast from Prince George's County outside Washington DC and Hempstead, Long Island in New York to Bakersfield, east of Los Angeles. According to a recent Brookings Institution report, the number of suburban poor in the U.S. (family of four earning below $22,350 annually—the federal poverty line) grew by 64% during the 2000-2010 period, and now outstrips the number of poor living in major cities. As the gentrification of many city centers continues and more Americans fancy convenient urban lifestyles, we can expect more poor families to be pushed towards the fringes and into once middle class suburban districts. Struggling regional malls and half empty office parks will be leading indicators of theproblems to come. It's just not where you want to invest.

Stakes Rise Overseas: Big private equity funds raise more capital to make property acquisitions internationally as Europe heads into a triple dip and China's markets look increasingly iffy. With all those empty buildings in Chinese cities is more development necessary? Only if the government wants to borrow in order to keep legions of construction workers happily employed… India has a new government, but features the same corruption and ineptitude with destabilizing Pakistan and Afghanistan on its doorstep. Brazil managed through the World Cup (hastily built stadiums remained upright), but its economy has not sustained recent levels of high growth especially with its important China export market so unsettled… Ardor should completely fade for the Middle East sand empires of Abu Dhabi and Dubai as conflagration plagues the region—can you see the ISIS legions from the tops of those out-of-place skyscrapers? (Well I guess they are not that tall)… Investing globally seems chancier by the day… But that's why they call it opportunistic.

Instant Insights /

Here We Go Again--Development in Atlanta...Ferguson... Going Global?

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