WASHINGTON, DC—So much for the theory that the lackluster growth seen at the beginning of the year was due to the terrible weather. This morning the US Labor Department reported that the economy created 142,000 jobs in August and unemployment dropped to 6.1% from 6.2%. Economists, however, had been expecting 225,000 jobs to be created for the month.
In addition, downward revisions to the prior two months pushed the average monthly gain over the last three months down to 207,000 from 245,000.
"The results were discouraging considering the US economy gained so much momentum in the early part of the year," Scott Homa, Mid-Atlantic research director for JLL, tells GlobeSt.com.
Indeed, the mantra from most economists has been that the US is having a good year and that lackluster growth seen at the beginning of the year was due to the extraordinarily bad weather. Certainly, other economic indicators have bolstered this theory, not the least of which was the recent GDP figures. Just weeks ago the Commerce Department revised its calculation of US gross domestic product growth for the second quarter to 4.2%. Earlier it had reported GPD clocked in at 4%, but in the revised figures noted that businesses spent more on capital goods and research and development than previously estimated. More than likely, this theory of solid, if not inspiring, economic growth for the year is an accurate one. There is something about unexpectedly poor job numbers – compared to, say, durable goods orders -- that is especially jarring to say nothing of headline making.
A look at the broader context of job creation for the year shows that employment gains have averaged 215,000 jobs per month, Homa says. "That is the strongest level in over a decade and the trajectory of the overall labor market remains favorable."
Also, the other indicators are not to be discounted, Doug Duncan, Chief Economist of Fannie Mae, says in a prepared statement.
Initial jobless claims, job openings, and purchasing managers' surveys have all portrayed improving labor market conditions, he says. "Thus, our view of the underlying trend of the jobs market has not changed…"
Even the broader macroeconomic indicators of consumer confidence, corporate profits and stock market performance bode well for the long run, Homa says. – "They all suggest that the economy is still enjoying a relatively robust recovery and continued job gains should materialize in the second half of the year."
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