We are going back to war and it is the result of the foreign policy of Obama and Hillary. When you act weak as the leader of the world, really bad people do really bad things knowing they will get away with it. Obama started with the apology tour and speech in Cairo, he did not support the revolutionaries in Iran in 2009, he did not lead in Libya, he supported the Muslim Brotherhood and he refused to leave the 25,000 troops in Iraq that the military and CIA said were absolutely needed to maintain peace and to stop what has now happened. And on and on. By failing to react powerfully when Foley was beheaded he sent a message of indecision and weakness. By failing to really stand up to Putin, he has now presented the world and especially Europe with a major crisis of cold war proportions. He did not really stand up for Israel, and he failed to make sure they were rearmed with the shells, bombs and funding needed to carry on the war, and so Hamas and Iran are encouraged to fight on. He refused to support the moderate rebels in Syria, and he refused to rearm Ukraine. He folded on Iran and now instead of the sanctions put in place by Congress, the Iranian economy has rebounded and the pressure is off while they dangle a deal and Obama falls for the lure because he is so desperate to do any deal, no matter how bad. Obama encouraged an isolationist mentality, and that was supported by Rand Paul which undercut the political will of the American electorate to do what was needed in the world. So now we are faced with a major terror threat worse potentially than 9-11, and a world in utter turmoil very similar to what occurred in 1914 and 1938. Go study your history books and the parallels are strong.

So what does all this mean to CRE in the US, Europe, and what does it mean to interest rates. Good and bad. First the good. Despite talk of the economy improving, and when will the Fed raise rates, there is an enormous amount of capital pouring into the US and into Treasuries, the more war ramps up as it is about to do, the more capital pours in and the more pressure there will be in the market pushing the ten year to new lows. While there are signs of improvement in the US economy, there are also signs of less than robust growth. Housing is again weaker. Even if new construction of homes may be up, it is way behind where it should be. Jobs may getting added, but wages are not growing and the majority of the jobs added are part time. The participation rate is still at near record lows, and the U6 is still above 12%. The jobs added may have gotten the employed number back to 2007 levels but the population is now 16 million larger, so we have a very long way to go. So long as the world is headed back to a major military undertaking in Iraq and Syria, there will be lower confidence for corporations and others to invest in major expansion and new ventures. So long as Putin is allowed to continue to do as he wishes in Eastern Europe, there will be a continued slowdown in Europe. Possibly even a recession. Despite the supposed reorientation to Asia that Obama and Hillary claimed, it has not happened, so now Japan, Taiwan, Australia and the Philippines are ramping up defense spending rapidly since they know they cannot count on the US to counter China. This all will keep rates low possibly for longer than would have been the case. Add to all of this , the anti corruption push in China, and the rapidly growing amount of flight capital form there to the US, and you have even further pressure on rates to stay lower than they would otherwise be going forward.

So now we have flight capital pouring in, and growing fear and uncertainty, all offsetting the slow growth of the economy, and the result will be continued low rates for a longer time than any of us ever thought. How low, I cannot guess, just lower than we all thought.

The bad news is the economy and that of Europe will remain much slower than they should be. All the funds who raced to Europe to buy distressed debt and assets will find their returns lower and delayed than what they told investors. Maybe much slower by a lot.

In the US, the economic recovery will be hampered and the European situation will slow exports and so slow factory recovery more than it would have been had Obama not had the foreign policy he has. The housing market will not make a material recovery for longer than you thought because wages are remaining stagnant, and more important, the geopolitical situation will worsen and cause potential homebuyers to be more cautious. The push for a higher minimum wage will cause more job layoffs or not hiring, and that will further slow the recovery. Add on Obamacare and the mandates which got delayed until after the election kicking in and even more pressure will happen to not hire full time staff. Labor costs include benefits, and since Obama does not have any understanding of what running a company is all about, he fails to understand that all of these costs, added to the huge extra costs of increased regulation will cause lower hiring.

So while rates may stay lower than expected, economic growth will be slower than it should be. US CRE will be a safe haven for offshore investors, especially from China, Japan and Europe, but real value growth will be much more moderate than we all expected. Bottom line, buy for current yield and lock down low cost debt while it is here, and don't do high risk deals. Stay in the US and wait out the next few years of war and geopolitical disruption in Europe and Southeast Asia. We are headed to a very risky period in the world, and at high risk of a new

9-11. This is not a time to take risks. Worry about protecting principal, and not about chasing another hundred basis points of yield. This is major risk off time.

Instant Insights /

It Is Time To Worry About Protecting Principal, Not Chasing Return.

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