NEW YORK CITY—As a corrective to what it sees as “a lot of hand-wringing about the US consumer,” Cushman & Wakefield on Monday reported that the general trends are on the rise. “Overall, we remain confident that consumers will continue to increase spending at a healthy clip, which will boost the need for both retail and industrial space in the coming year,” according to the weekly report prepared by Ken McCarthy, senior managing director of economic analysis and forecasting at C&W. It calls anxiety about consumer spending “misplaced.”
The first estimates of US retail sales for August have been released, along with revised data for June and July. Previous figures from the Commerce Department had indicated flat July numbers compared to June, thus triggering concerns about stalling growth. “Retail sales rose a healthy 0.6% in August, the largest increase since April, as strong auto sales boosted spending,” according to C&W's report. “Perhaps more importantly, the level of retail sales in both June and July was revised upward.” Since retail sales account for about half of total consumer spending, “the upward revision means that spending most likely did not decline in July as first reported.”
McCarthy also writes that optimism is on the upswing. “The Thomson-Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment continues to improve,” he notes. “In early September, the Index rose to 84.1, the highest level since July 2013.”
Although the “Current Conditions” component of the Index, which reflects consumer feelings about their current financial condition, decreased slightly, the C&W report notes that it nonetheless remains “near multi-year highs. The current conditions index tracks very closely with consumer spending, so a high reading means households are more likely to increase spending” in the months to come.
In fact, the report states, “US retail sales have increased at an annual rate of 8.4%” since January. “Inflation over this period was about 2.3%, so real spending has been rising at a very healthy 6.0% clip since January.”
Other economic data, as well, support the view that consumers are likely to continue to increase spending at a strong pace in the coming months. “According to the Federal Reserve, household debt service payments as a percent of after-tax income are at the lowest level since the Fed began measuring this back in 1980,” the report states. And while July's 2.6% year-over-year gain in real after-tax income does not represent “a spectacular gain,” it is the largest increase since October 2012.
“The pace of income growth has been steadily improving,” according to the C&W report. “In the first seven months of 2014, real after-tax income increased at a 4.0% annual rate.”
And while the slow pace of wage growth remains a concern, there are signs of faster increases to come. “In its monthly report on small businesses released this week, the National Federation of Independent Businesses noted that the percentage of firms with at least one position that is hard to fill climbed to the highest level since 2007,” McCarthy writes. “When it is hard to find employees, businesses are generally forced to raise wages.”
Another component of the federation's index showed that the percentage of firms raising compensation is back to levels last seen seven or eight years ago. “So even though wage growth has been slow, it appears that the tightening of labor markets and difficulty finding qualified workers is starting to have an impact,” according to C&W's report. “This is why we anticipate that wage growth will accelerate in the coming year.”
© Touchpoint Markets, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more inforrmation visit Asset & Logo Licensing.