IRVINE, CA—Is there a correlation between housing health and election results? RealtyTrac believes there may be, so the firm has released a 2014 Election Housing Scorecard report analyzing the health of local housing markets in more than 1,500 counties nationwide compared with two years ago and predicting US Senate race outcomes based on the results.

The firm studied these markets based on up to five factors impacting housing health: housing affordability compared to two years ago, unemployment rates compared to two years ago, foreclosure starts compared to two years ago, median home prices compared to two years ago and the current percentage of seriously underwater homeowners. County housing markets were categorized as better off, worse off or a toss-up based on this score.

A total of 52% of all those analyzed were categorized as better off compared to two years ago, while 11% fell into the worse-off category and 36% were categorized a toss-up. A total of 50% of the total population in all housing markets analyzed for the report were in the better-off category, while 9% were in the worse-off markets and 41% were in the toss-up pile.

With regard to some highly contested Senate races, RealtyTrac predicts that the Republican incumbent party—with the incumbent retiring—will win in Georgia, where 56% of the counties were categorized as better off; the Republican candidate David Perdue is slightly ahead in the polls. In North Carolina, where 66% of the counties were categorized as better off, the Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan is favored and has a slight edge in the polls. While the pools show a dead heat in Colorado, RealtyTrac's report favors the Democratic incumbent, Senator Mark Udall; this market had no counties categorized as worse off.

According to Daren Blomquist, VP of RealtyTrac, “The housing market recovery has truly taken hold in about half of the country, but the recovery is weak or experiencing a relapse in the other half. Whether because of good government policy, sheer luck or otherwise, the majority of county housing markets in six of the eight states with close US Senate races are better off than they were two years ago. This should favor the incumbent, or the incumbent's party, all else being equal—which of course we know it is not. The only exceptions were Iowa and Alaska, where the majority of county housing markets were classified as toss-ups compared with two years ago.”

Regarding a historical correlation between housing health and election results, Blomquest tells GlobeSt.com, “We don't have any historical data correlating housing-market health with election results, but certainly housing would classify as one of those pocketbook issues for voters. For most Americans—both renters and homeowners—the biggest piece of monthly income goes toward housing. And a home represents the biggest asset for many homeowners. Anything impacting the value of that asset is going matter to them and could certainly influence how they vote.”

Housing health continues to improve in markets throughout the country. As GlobeSt.com reported last week, in the 12 months ending in June, a total of 797,865 home-equity lines of credit were originated nationwide, up 20.6% from a year ago and the highest level since the 12 months ending June 2009, according to a report from RealtyTrac. The report also shows HELOC originations accounted for 15.4% of all loan originations nationwide during the first eight months of 2014, the highest percentage since 2008; however, this is still 76% below the peak of 2006.

For an infographic on the report results, click here.

For an election-prediction heat map, click here.