LOS ANGELES—Overall, the economic outlook is bright, according to five leading economists on the Economy Decoded panel at CCIM Thrive. Rather than a typical debate, economists each gave a short presentation, weighing employment growth, spending and investor confidence to determine the state of the economy—which was generally positive. Moderated by Mark Dotzour, chief economist of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M, the panel included speakers Jonathan D. Miller, partner and co-owner of Miller Ryan LLC; Robert Bach, director of research for the Americas at Newmark Grubb Knight Frank; Ken McCarthy, research director at Cushman & Wakefield; and Gary Ralston, CCIM, managing partner at Coldwell Banker Commercial.

Dotzour took to the podium first, offering a relatively bright perspective due to consumer spending power. “The net worth of the American people has never been higher,” he said on the panel, adding that this will lead to augmented spending because “Americans do not tolerate deferred gratification.” He also noted that although the Federal Reserve has extended the balance sheet, we do not have inflation. However, not all of the panelists shared his optimism. Miller, who gave the final presentation, agreed that Americans have a higher net worth today, but noted that the wealth is concentrated at the very top with 45% at the poverty level and stagnant wages. “I am more a glass half empty guy. I don't think things are as good for the long term as these guys do,” he said in his denouement speech.

Employment was also a major theme of the presentations. Ralston noted that we have been bleeding jobs for more than a decade. While tech and media jobs are leading the spectrum, education and healthcare sectors are also trending up, while finance and information jobs, like newspapers, are down.

McCarthy, however, had a brighter outlook, noting that we have had good job growth, and he believes we are on the brink of significant growth. “This is the slowest economic recovery on record because we haven't had above-trend growth,” he said in his presentation. “However, I think it's about to happen because businesses have gone from defense to offence, which will lead to more job growth.”

Bach, on the other hand, looked at where this growth is occurring, explaining that recovery is “uneven in metro areas.” In Texas, where he is from, Austin is growing rapidly, for example. He goes on to note that the importance of Texas, California and Florida to the national economy because those three states have 25% of the jobs in the nation and account for 40% of job growth.

Although most of the panelists believed we would see sustained economic growth over the next few years, Miller noted additional areas of concern, including infrastructure and an aging population. “We expect that we are going to have 50 million more people in this country in the next 20 years, but three to four years ago, we thought we'd have 100 million more people,” he said. “That number is less because we don't have the economic engine to attract people.”

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