NEW YORK CITY—In his most recent post, EthanPenner looks at the human need forcertainty, finding it lacking and implicatingit in such failures as the inadequacy of agencies' math modelsduring 2007 and 2008 to the lukewarm response in the ensuingfallout.

Penner writes:

"Another prime example of us seeking certainty is when we investour trust in leadership, assuming they will get it all right andthus taking us off the hook for worrying about or handling thingsourselves. Back in 2007/8, we believed, quite mistakenly, when WallStreet CEOs and our Fed Chairman and Secretary of Treasury, andPresident all told us that the impending housing finance crisiswould be short-lived and would not really impact the broadereconomy too much....[We] continue to believe in modern day PeterPans, rather than accept that the world is fraught with uncertaintyand that we need to contend with it head on."