NEW YORK CITY—It's not a coincidence that in recent reports,both Fitch Ratings and Trepp haveused the word “wall” to characterize the CMBSmaturities due to occur in 2015, 2016 and 2017. “Over thenext three years, more than $300 billion in conduitCMBS loan balance will mature,” according to a Treppreport that cites a preponderance of 10-year balloon loans issuedbetween 2005 and 2007. “That's more than 2.5 times the amount thatmatured from 2012 to 2014.”

In fact, Trepp notes, nearly 60% of the loans inthe CMBS conduit universe will mature over the next three years.“Commercial real estate lenders, borrowers and CMBS investors alikeare looking at the next three years as a true test of the strengthof recovering capital markets.”

What will happen during that period is by nomeans certain. “Given that the majority of loans remaining in the2005−2007 transactions are still performing—and have coupons that,on average, are higher than the current interest rate—should meanthat their ability to refinance will be relatively smooth,” Fitchsays in a new report on the outlook for structured finance,including CMBS. “However, a more rapid increase in interest ratesthan that expected could prove problematic.”