MIAMI—What does 2015 hold on the capital markets front? Like I said before, it depends on whom you ask.
Armando Montelongo, a real estate flipping expert and star of the reality TV show Flip This House, is helping me prove that point. Earlier this month, I asked Greg Matus, regional managing partner of Franklin Street's South Florida offices, for his quick predictions on the capital markets in 2015.
"Next year, we will see a lot of the mid-to-large commercial real estate deals take place, primarily because a lot more debt will be available to investors,” Matus told me. “2015 will be the year that CMBS and non-recourse financing explodes.”
But Montelongo doesn't exactly agree—or at least he doesn't think it should. He tells GlobeSt.com the real estate market is driven by demand—and demand is created by the availability of funds or credit.
“In the residential market across America, 2014 has shown a healthy growth in most major cities, such as Las Vegas, Orlando, Miami, San Antonio, Los Angeles, to name a few, creating a lot of opportunities to the educated investor,” Montelongo says. “Additionally, international investors have had a major influence on these cities and the growth in real estate.”
For the market to hit high growth, Montelongo says lending institutions need to create products that the American family can utilize for purchasing real estate. Without this, he warns, the end users that demand the growth will not reach its full potential, growth will only continue on the path it is now and will dry up when the ROI to professional real estate investors no longer makes sense.
“Investors have the opportunity to make money in any market, and can actually make more in a down market if they positioned themselves correctly,” Montelongo says. “If non-recourse financing options become available you will see an explosion of investment. However, if the loans are not structured correctly we also may see history repeating itself. Either way, the educated, professional real estate investor will always win.”
"Explode" is a strong word. What makes Matus think that's the appropriate prediction for the CMBS market?
For one thing, he says, investors have been backfilling their space over the past few years in an improving economy. That has led to higher occupancy rates.
“As a result, they have grown significant equity in their assets,” Matus says. “Now, these investors are in a position to take equity out, as buyers can secure non-recourse loans at favorable rates.
Does the market have a short-term memory? Maybe, if Matus is right: “I think we'll start approaching the same level of trades that we did prior to the market crash in '08 in all asset classes, with significant growth in multi-tenant retail business.”
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