WASHINGTON, DC—We have called it before and we are calling it again: new figures from JLL suggest the DC office market is finally at that long-awaited tipping point—that is, it is poised to swing into landlord territory.

There are many caveats accompanying that statement, though. It will likely be true for only certain parts of the area, such as the District and select submarkets in Maryland and Virginia. It will apply only to the best, newest properties. And at least in the beginning, it will only apply to a certain type of office user—companies with a large footprint looking for high quality space.

All that said, JLL predicts there will be a 3% to 5% net effective increase in rents next year.

"That doesn't mean the overall market will experience that," JLL Research Director Scott Homa tells GlobeSt.com. "There is still a lot of softness especially in the suburbs. But the trophy market is clearly tightening."

Tenants still have a window of opportunity to score good deals given that vacancy rates are still elevated, he adds. "But we will see a relatively quick shift in market dynamics over next 12 to 18 months where the leverage swings more to landlords and ultimately creates situation in which by late next year and in 2016 you will have a lot of developers start thinking about breaking ground."

There are several reasons behind this prediction. After years of cutting space needs to the bone, demand for office has clearly bottomed and in fact in the fourth quarter showed signs of real growth. Supply, of course, has been muted with only a few buildings started on spec.

Indeed the most compelling piece of evidence JLL puts forth are fourth quarter statistics that show the Metro DC office market recorded 800,000 square feet of positive net absorption. Yet the amount of active construction underway is 69.8% below average.

In 2015, just 1.5 million square feet will deliver; in 2016, just 2 million square feet will deliver, JLL says – levels that are deeply below the long-term historical average of 5.8 million square feet of construction completions per year.

"Tenants will be forced into second-generation space options," Homa says. "It bodes well for the market from a supply-demand and pricing perspective. You will see owners begin to scale back on concessions and or raise base rates."

Other noteworthy stats by JLL:

· During the prior market peak in 2009, there were nearly 600% more construction deliveries than are planned for 2015 or 2016.

· Preleasing activity is also up significantly. Over half of all space actively under construction with delivery projected through 2018 is already committed, relative to a historical average of 44.4%.

· These factors have helped drive a 70 basis point drop in trophy vacancy year-over-year and a 10 basis point drop in overall market vacancy during the fourth quarter. A further decline in vacancy rates by approximately 50 to 75 basis points is anticipated in 2015.

All of this, Homa concludes, "has the potential to move DC from the bottom of market cycle and one of the laggards nationally into a much more prominent position in which we are keeping pace with national economy and national office market."