NEW YORK CITY—Whether the expectation is for strength not seen in 10 years or a continuation of the gradual upward trend that has characterized the recovery, industry economists agree: the US economy will continue in 2015 with the momentum that gathered in the second half of 2014. Cushman & Wakefield's Ken McCarthy anticipates GDP growth of at least 3.3.% this year, while a Delta Associates report forecasts “moderate growth over the next few years.”

The Delta Associates report, which predicts a slightly more measured 3.1% pace of GDP growth this year, bases its long-term projections on “supportive monetary policy, increasing home prices and equity values (despite some volatility), and a decreased drag from fiscal policy. The recovery likely will proceed as it has for more than five years now: on a bumpy—but upward—trajectory.”

During the most recent quarter, as was the case through most of '14, the economy experienced “moderate but positive growth,” according to Alexandria, VA-based Delta Associates, the research affiliate of Transwestern. Conditions for the year ahead will be “slightly improved,” the report states. “Encouragingly, job growth levels were consistently strong”throughout the year that just ended, GDP growth was “above expectations, the S&P 500 reached a record high and the unemployment rate continues to decline. Looking forward, we expect most if not all of these trends to continue.”

Senior managing director of economic analysis and forecasting research, McCarthy predicts that if spendng and hiring continue gathering strength, the US economy will see its best year since 2005. He predicts that growth this year will come from “consumer spending, business investment and, to a lesser extent, housing.”

For consumer spending to lead the way, writes McCarthy, it will have to grow at a faster pace than it has averaged across the recovery—but there's already evidence of this occurring. In the past four months, he writes, retail sales adjusted for inflation “have increased at a very strong estimated annual rate of 7.5%.”

Declining oil prices, too, will be a “net positive” for the economy, McCarthy predicts, as lower prices at the pump boost the income available for discretionary purchases and reduce costs in a wide range of industries. He adds, however, that “the decline in oil prices is also creating some risk to the outlook as countries that are major exporters of petroleum may be faced with rising financial burdens.”

All in all, writes McCarthy, the anticipated acceleration in the economy will make “a strong positive impact on the US commercial real estate sector, leading to higher demand in all major sectors: office, industrial, retail, multifamily and hospitality.” Already, says CBRE, the fourth quarter of '14 set the stage, as the national office vacancy rate declined by 20 basis points from Q3 to reach 13.9%, a year-over-year improvement of 100 bps. The office market's performance last year was the best since 2007.

Further, says CBRE, national industrial availability declined 30 bps from the previous quarter to 10.3% in Q4, while retail availability shed 10 bps to end the year at 11.4%. “The commercial real estate market continues its broad-based, steady improvement,” says Jeffrey Havsy, Americas chief economist for CBRE. “Vacancy rates are still above pre-crisis troughs, but they are at or below the long-term averages. Continued economic growth combined with muted supply, should lead vacancy rates to fall even further in '15.”