NEW YORK CITY—A 23% year-over-year decline is a good thing when the decline in question was for the balance of US CMBS delinquencies. Late pays for securitized commercial mortgages ended 2014 at $18.4 billion, a Y-O-Y drop of $5.4 billion, Fitch Ratings says. The delinquency rate for Fitch-rated CMBS dropped 136 basis points Y-O-Y to 4.62%; earlier this month Trepp reported a 168-bp 12-month decline to 5.75%, using a different yardstick from Fitch's. 

However, it remains to be seen whether this winning losing streak continues. The second quarter of this year will see the so-called wave of maturities start to roll in, with $9.7 billion worth of Fitch-related loans coming due between April 1 and June 30, nearly three times the volume of Q1 maturities. The quarterly tally jumps to $12 billion in both Q3 and Q4, and will average north of $16 billion per quarter in 2016 and close to $18.4 billion per quarter in 2017.

The past year saw resolutions outpace new delinquencies by a ratio of nearly 2:1. Resolutions ended the year at $11.5 billion, compared with new delinquencies of $6.5 billion.

Furthermore, the index denominator was enlarged by $53 billion of Fitch-rated new issues, outweighing $51 billion in portfolio runoff. Securitized multifamily loans represented the largest share of new issues, fueled by $8 billion in Fitch-rated Freddie Mac transactions.

Fitch's ranking of the most-improved sectors differs from Trepp's, which GlobeSt.com reported last week. Trepp ranked hotels as the sector that saw the biggest Y-O-Y decline in CMBS delinquencies; Fitch says it's industrial, with a 320-bp improvement to 5.25%. The ratings agency ranks lodging's improvement at a more modest 30-bp decline Y-O-Y to 6.2%.

Both sources agree that retail showed the smallest Y-O-Y improvement, with Fitch pegging it at a 26-bp decline in late-pays to 5.37%. Multifamily's delinquency rate lost 126 bps Y-O-Y and finished '14 at 5.22%, while office saw a 188-bp improvement to 5.01%, Fitch says.