SEATTLE—Andrew Nelson, who recently joined Colliers International as its chief economist, USA, calls upon a background of leadership positions in both the public and private sectors. Prior to his most recent position as director of research and strategy in the Americas at Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, Nelson was VP of HOK Advance Strategies. He sat down with GlobeSt.com earlier this week to provide his take on the macroeconomic environment as well as what's on tap for his new role with Colliers.
GlobeSt.com: What drew you to Colliers International?
Nelson: This is an exciting time to join Colliers. It's been the fastest-growing CRE firm for the past five years — and, if anything, its reputation is expanding even faster. Plus, there's a growing demand for the kind of insights I am looking forward to bringing to the organization. I don't know if a property services firm could ever compete at the highest levels without a top-flight economics and research team, but now it's absolutely essential — to provide clients with critical business insights, to build the firm's credibility and reputation through thought leadership, and to provide market intelligence for the firm to help guide strategy and build business. Colliers is already well known for its outstanding, informed client services as well as in-depth research resources.
GlobeSt.com: You bring a diverse background in finance and real estate expertise to the position. How do you anticipate your experience will be brought to bear at Colliers?
Nelson: Property markets have matured immeasurably over the past 20 to 30 years. Capital flows are global in scope, while investors and occupiers are increasingly sophisticated. Service providers like Colliers must bring both specialized expertise as well as broad understanding in order to assist their clients effectively. I've spent almost a decade with a global investment management firm and before that served in a variety of leadership roles addressing corporate and public real estate, developers and investors. The common denominator in my experience has been gauging economic trends and understanding how they affect property markets, leveraging my deep and diverse experiences that span both occupiers and investors of real estate globally.
As an economist, I tend to look out five to 10 years in the future to understand where markets are heading rather than just where they are now. This longer-term view is beneficial to our clients—whether tenants, owners, investors— and enables them to make more informed decisions, rather than just responding to the latest market shifts. I am thrilled for the opportunity to advise Colliers and our clients on the ever-dynamic economic trends and climate.
GlobeSt.com: In developing market perspectives for the firm's clients, what are your top priorities in terms of serving clients' needs?
Nelson: My top priority is to incorporate my specific expertise into Colliers' client engagement strategy, which encourages cross-functional service integration. Colliers' services are customized to transform real estate—often one of a business' largest expenses—into a competitive advantage. In order to achieve that, we engage in careful listening and then activate a system of uncovering client needs to help us understand the subtle business drivers behind key real estate decisions. Beyond that, I will work with the research team and draw upon Colliers' network of professionals to identify the key trends that will affect our industry in the coming years and develop thought-provoking economic and market perspectives for our clients.
GlobeSt,com: Finally, what's your take on the macroeconomic environment headed into 2015?
Nelson: I'm seeing 2015 as being a very good year for the property sector as the economic recovery kicks into a higher gear, fueling the space demand that will continue and strengthen the improvement in property fundamentals. I hesitate to call this a Goldilocks economy because that can set unrealistic expectations, but virtually all of the economic drivers —jobs, wealth, housing starts—are firing in the right direction.
At the same time, the supply response has been relatively muted compared to typical recovery periods, so all this additional tenant demand is translating directly into rising occupancies and rents for existing buildings. Not every market is recovering equally of course, and there are some pockets of concern where supply is becoming more problematic. But in the main, this year should be the most positive year yet for property owners since the recession, especially in markets like New York City, Los Angeles, Miami and Seattle. And tenants have reason for optimism, too, as they still have opportunities to lock in relatively affordable space in most markets, at rents that still are below prior peak levels.
Of course, I would be remiss if I didn't acknowledge some risks out there that can derail or at least moderate the gains. Here I'm thinking of the various geopolitical risks, potential fallout from the plunge in oil prices, and the continued weakness in the euro zone and Japan. But overall, I foresee strong economic growth and limited new construction, which equals strong property markets.
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