CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA—With a nod to one of the numerous hits by Katy Perry, this year's main halftime attraction during the Super Bowl, it may be unfair to say that REIT analysts change their minds like a girl changes clothes. However, SNL Financial data reveal that during 2014, analysts changed their ratings on publicly traded US REITs 289 times. Specifically, that's the total number of upgrades or downgrades issued for 60 REITs covered by at least three analysts—or, in the case of Boston Properties, as many as 16—that provided their research to SNL.
Shopping center REIT Macerich Co. received the highest number of recommendation changes between Dec. 31, 2013 and this past Dec. 31. Brandywine Realty Trust received more upgrades than any other REIT in the past year, while Campus Crest Communities was downgraded more often than any other.
MAC received three upgrade recommendations during the first six months of last year, according to SNL. This was followed by five downgrades during the year's second half, occurring mainly after Simon Property Group—whose own track record for upgrades and downgrades was not covered in SNL's report—disclosed a 3.6% stake in MAC.
"After rising 20% in the past month”—compared to a 3% increase in the MSCI US REIT index during that time—“and nearly 40% year-to-date (vs. RMZ +24%), we are downgrading our rating on MAC to Hold from Buy,” according to a Dec. 17 investor note from MLV & Co.'s Paul Morgan, an analyst quoted in SNL's report. “While the recent rally was clearly aided by SPG's announcement last month of its 3.6% stake in Macerich, we view the recent trading range as representing fair value in light of strong core fundamentals and redevelopment upside, supplemented by the potential takeover interest.”
Conversely, three of BDN's five upgrades also occurred late in the year, out of a total of seven recommendation changes. One of the analysts upgrading his view of the REIT in the fourth quarter, Rich Anderson of Mizuho Securities USA, cited “solid” Q3 results as well as an “improved” outlook for cash flow and dividend growth, according to SNL. In common with Stifel Nicolas & Co. analyst John Guinee, Anderson gave plaudits to BDN's $335-million equity offering in late July, saying that the REIT “fast-tracked the deleveraging process” via the offering.
Other REITs that received more upgrades than downgrades from analysts last year included Ventas Inc., Prologis Inc. and BXP. Duke Realty, Regency Centers Corp. and Rayonier Inc. received three upgrades apiece, and no downgrades.
CCG was covered by five analysts that reported their recommendations to SNL, and received a total of six downgrades from the group during '14. The downgrades occurred in tandem with guidance cuts and the company's Nov. 4 announcement that it would reduce its dividend and discontinue all property development.
Other REITs for which downgrades comprised the majority of analyst recommendation changes last year included Liberty Property Trust, AmREIT, Essex Property Trust, American Realty Capital Properties, Extra Space Storage, National Retail Properties Inc. and Parkway Properties, according to SNL.
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