SAN DIEGO—While last year's conference reflected concern over interest rates rising, this year no one is letting this possibility stop them from doing deals, NorthMarq's president Jeff Weidell told GlobeSt.com at CREF15 here this week. The San Francisco-based Weidell commented on a number of trends he was noticing at the event and in the commercial real estate lending industry in general.
“People are recognizing that rates are low, and yet they expect them to stay there,” Weidell said. “They're not waiting for rates to increase. But they do recognize that if they do all their deals in the beginning of the year with low rates, it may be problematic later on.”
Weidell commented that Prudential had revealed with the Treasury so low, cap rates relative to the treasury are fine. Whether people believe rates will remain low or will rise, the sentiment now is still to lend and invest.
Still, he added, lenders are cautious about meeting targets. “Everybody has a good allocation of money. In 2014, they had to look at a lot of deals to get things done.”
Also, life companies are talking about bank-type programs and moving beyond the core into secondary and tertiary markets, and there's a natural caution toward oil, Weidell says. “Texas is huge for us, especially Houston, but there is more caution there than there was a year ago.” Lenders are also running into concentration issues, with too much investment in one area, he said.
With regard to property sectors, there's more interest in office than in the recent past, and while lenders are interested in industrial, there's not a lot available in which to invest.
In general, Weidell said multifamily has been dominant, but lenders are now branching beyond this sector. “If you got into multifamily early, there are concerns for getting into it late. There's also a concern over oversaturation of class-A since there's been so much construction.”
Hotels are also making lenders nervous, Weidell said. “They've had such a run, but in acquisitions and in new construction.”
He added that he's not hearing much about medical real estate because “it's corporate and not generic enough to be finances as real estate. Seniors and student housing have been active, with student peaking and seniors rising. There's a surge—the age wave hasn't recovered from the bust of construction during the recession.”
Global economy issues aren't really affecting lending trends here, Weidell said, but the urban-infill trend has. “In any city that has been economically successful, the traffic is worse and the continued trend is very strong.”
Weidell said his firm is also beginning to focus more on succession planning as the workforce gets younger and smarter. “We are being selective in hiring people who are willing to put in the time and effort” needed to learn and advance, and his firm is also “leaning toward an associate-producer program” involving mentorship. “It gets people involved in deals and provides a launching pad for them.”
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