DALLAS—January's numbers for the apartment market nationally were the strongest for the month since the recession ended, Axiometrics said Tuesday.  The month yielded annual effective rent growth of 4.9% and occupancy of 94.6%. By comparison, last January's annual effective rent growth for multifamily was 202 basis points lower at 2.9%.

“We expected rent growth to moderate in 2015 after the spectacular growth of 2014,” says Stephanie McCleskey, VP of research at Dallas-based Axiometrics. Yet January's results speak to “an apartment market that is continuing the strength” of the past 12 months.

January's occupancy rate reflected a year-over-year increase of 48 bps. Two years ago, the January rate was also 94.1%, while the three previous years showed upward progression: 93.4% in January 2012; 93.1% in January 2011; and 91.6% in January 2010. The national occupancy rate has exceeded 94% for 34 straight months.

Conversely, though, Axiometrics notes that annual effective rent growth in January was off from December, breaking a 10-month streak of month-over-month growth. Moreover, year-to-date rent growth is the second lowest of the recovery period at 0.20%, although the company also points out that only seven bps separate the largest and smallest YTD rent growth rates for January during that period.

In Axiometric's ranking of the top 50 metros, California continues to lead the nation for apartment metrics, topped by Oakland, which saw Y-O-Y rent growth of 14.3%, although in terms the firm's top 121 markets the standout was Odessa, TX at 18.4% Y-O-Y. The city across the bay from San Francisco also topped Axiometrics' top 50 list for occupancy, at 96.6%, and revenue growth (rent growth plus occupancy change) at 14.8%.

“Desirable jobs are being created in the Bay Area by successful entrepreneurs who are tapping into the ever-growing tech industry,” McCleskey observes, calling this “great news for landlords. Oakland remains No. 1 because it is a more affordable alternative to San Jose and San Francisco, and new supply remains at a minimum there.”

Along with Oakland, three other California metro areas are in Axiometrics' top 10: San Francisco at number two, San Jose at number four and Sacramento at number six. Denver, though, elbowed San Jose out of third place, with revenue growth of 12.3%.