LOS ANGELES—Household formation has returned to its pre-recession level of one million households per year, according to a new study from the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. The study found that over the past 30 years, a three-year recovery period for household formation has been the norm, regardless of whether hiring has returned to full strength.

“The freeze in formations is over and people are again moving out and forming households,” says Gary Painter, director of research at USC Lusk. “This means that real estate professionals and policy makers should not keep waiting for pent-up demand. So while a number of factors will continue to influence the housing recovery, household formation is no longer one of them.”

The study, based on quarterly data from 1975 to 2011 and which Painter co-wrote with doctoral candidate Jung Hyun Choi, found that household formations fell to nearly zero between 2008 and 2010. They began playing catch-up over the next three years and have now returned to levels last seen in 2007. That's been the pattern for recessions and other shocks to the US economy since the 1980s.

 “This shows us that even a permanent increase in the unemployment rate will not have a permanent impact on housing formation,” says Painter. “As a result, policymakers and industry practitioners have a new level of predictability when it comes to how economic crises impact the rate of new households.”