CALABASAS, CA—Spring may be just around the corner, but in the view of investors, it's already here. Marcus & Millichap said Monday that its quarterly Investor Sentiment Survey Index has reached a new high, with the eight-point increase from the prior quarter to 187 reflecting a level of investor confidence not matched in the survey's 10-year history.
Sixty-eight percent of respondents to MMI's latest survey plan to increase their holdings in the coming year by an average of 15%. An additional 26% expect their investments to hold the line during 2015, while just 6% said that their real estate portfolio may decrease over the next year.
MMI attributes the positive sentiment to several different factors. First and foremost, it reflects continued performance improvement across all property types. “The trends are building momentum, especially for the property types that have lagged behind through the recovery so far,” says Hessam Nadji, chief strategy officer and director of specialty divisions at MMI. “Those sectors, particularly office and retail, are now beginning to catch up,.”
Slightly more than half the respondents, or 51%, either strongly or somewhat agree that property fundamentals will improve faster over the next 12 months. Twenty-seven percent were neutral in their views, while the remaining 22% do not believe that improving fundamentals will accelerate.
Against a backdrop of still-low interest rates, strong job growth and retail sales growth in the US,, a majority of commercial real estate investors expect the value of properties in their portfolios to increase over the next 12 months. Especially optimistic are multifamily investors, with 78% expecting values to increase this year, by an average of 5.3%.
In the industrial sector, 68% of survey respondents believe the value of their properties will increase, with an average 4.4%. Similar sentiment is expressed by retail investors: 68% expect a 5.8% in value over the next 12 months. For the hotel sector, 63% of respondents expect values will increase by an average of 5%.
Putting more wind into the sails of the domestic CRE market, economic uncertainty across the international environment is causing the US to look even more favorable compared to other economies around the world, translating into more capital flowing into this country. Recently, the 10-year Treasury fell back to the 2.0% range, effectively wiping out the increases that occurred in 2013. Continued global economic uncertainty will likely restrain interest rates through much of the year.
“We believe that what's happened around the world with different central banks lowering rates will give our Federal Reserve pause as far as how aggressive they are going to be in raising our interest rates,” says William E. Hughes, SVP of Marcus & Millichap Capital Corp. “I think that the period of low interest rates has been extended, which is very good for our economy, for housing, and for commercial real estate.”
That being said, Nadji cautions that “We are not out of the woods when it comes to unexpected shocks. We are still in a fragile global environment. Aside from the international risks, the fundamentals in the US—economically, from an interest rate perspective, the availability of capital and, of course, job growth—are continuing to show a very healthy and improving picture for commercial real estate demand in 2015 and beyond.”
Check back on Wednesday for Kelsi Borland's one-on-one discussion with Hessam Nadji, focusing on foreign interest in US commercial properties.
© Touchpoint Markets, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more inforrmation visit Asset & Logo Licensing.