SAN FRANCISCO—Industrial's outlook isn't likely to dim any time soon, with Cushman & Wakefield and Colliers International both predicting further growth in the sector. “Strengthening fundamentals throughout North America support a positive forecast for the next three years,” says Maria Sicola, head of research for the Americas group at C&W. She expects economic conditions to drive further improvement and growth for industrial.
Specifically, US job growth is expected to exceed three million in 2015, boding well for the economy generally and the industrial sector in particular. “Trends in supply and demand are favorable across all major and secondary markets, with an overall decline in vacancy,” says John Morris, C&W's leader, industrial services for the Americas. “Shifting demand and service paradigms, market forces and global dynamics point to continuing growth in industrial real estate.”
Both C&W and Colliers report continuing declines in vacancy for industrial product, with C&W citing 19 consecutive quarters of occupancy improvements. Colliers says the North American vacancy rate at the end of 2014 was 6.8%, while in the US, vacancy fell 24 basis points to 7.2% at the end of last year's fourth quarter. It was the lowest level in more than 10 years, and all regions of the country recorded occupancy gains during Q4, as did 60 of the 72 individual markets tracked by Colliers.
Using a different base for measurements, C&W puts the US industrial vacancy rate at 6.7%. The firm says that even with new construction adding millions of square feet to the inventory, this year will conclude with vacancies at 6.3%.
Technology was the main driver behind the growth in supply last year, which saw the highest level of new construction in six years. Silicon Valley in particular outperformed other regions for space absorption over the past three years and C&W says it's expected to do so for the next three, accounting for 18% of national absorption during that time.
Other top performers are Boston, driven by tech, pharmaceuticals and life sciences; Denver, with energy and aerospace; and Dallas, powered by energy and tech. The three markets are predicted to absorb a combined 4.8 million square feet between '15 and '17. Portland is among the markets expected to experience positive momentum in the near term, thanks to a combination of “tame supply pipelines” and economic expansion.
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