CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA—The news that American Realty Capital Properties would reinstate paying a quarterly divided later this year dovetailed with an SNL Financial report that rated 15 traded equity REITs that are likely to increase such payments in the near term. ARCP in fact is among a dozen REITs that are not currently paying dividends, with the net lease REIT having suspended payouts this past December; SNL analyzed the likely candidates for increases by identifying those with steady regular dividend payments.
Between Jan. 1, 2013, and March 24 of this year, 62 companies did not increase rates, SNL found. After eliminating six REITs that have suspended dividend payments, two that completed IPOs earlier this year, three that hadn't been paying regular common-stock dividends and eight that decreased their dividends over the past two years, SNL ranked 15 that have had the lowest ratios of payout to adjusted funds from operations thus far this year.
Leading the list of candidates for dividend increases was Ashford Hospitality Trust, for which SNL estimates a 15% AFFO payout as of March 24. The hotel REIT's 2015 funds from operations payout estimate was lower, at 12.6%, and SNL notes that FactSet has projected AHP's FFO growth for 2015 and 2016 at 25.1% and 11.8%, respectively. The company has paid out a quarterly dividend of five cents per common share since January 2014, SNL says.
During AHP's fourth-quarter earnings call Feb. 27, CEO Monty Bennett said the REIT's dividiend policy for this year called for a continuation of the five-cents/share payout on a quarterly basis. “However, Bennett said the company will continue to review its dividend policies on a quarter-to-quarter basis, as the adoption of a dividend policy does not commit the company to declare future dividends,” according to SNL.
Up next was American Homes 4 Rent, with a 2015 SNL AFFO payout estimate of 36.4% as of March 24. AMH began paying out five cents per share on a quarterly basis in November 2013, roughly three months after completing its IPO on July 31 of that year, and has continued this policy each quarter since then, announcing its latest distribution on Feb. 26. “The company did not comment on the future of its dividend policy during the fourth-quarter earnings season,” SNL says in its report.
Coming in third and fourth on the list were Cedar Realty Trust Inc. and Empire State Realty Trust Inc., with year-to-date SNL AFFO payout estimates of 47.2% and 55.7%, respectively. In common with AHP and AHR, CDR has maintained a five-cent quarterly payment schedule—in the case of CDR, since February 2012—while ESRT has paid out 8.5 cents per share each quarter since March 2014.
SNL notes that neither CDR nor ESRT commented on its future dividend distributions during Q4 conference calls. Rounding out SNL's list for dividend increases are Rexford Industrial Realty, Aviv REIT Inc., Starwood Waypoint Residential Trust, Boston Properties Inc., Brandywine Realty Trust, Duke Realty Corp., Corporate Office Properties Trust, Inland Real Estate Corp., Kilroy Realty Corp., Realty Properties of America Inc. and DCT Industrial Trust Inc.
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