CALABASAS, CA—Since the price of oil began to fall last year, the perception has been that consumers would redirect their savings at the pump into other purchases. That's playing out across retail in a number of ways, research from Marcus & Millichap shows. Among other findings, MMI reports that the benefits of lower gas prices accrue to some commuters more than to others.
Specifically, the firm has devised a Gas Savings Index charting markets “where more cash is flowing into the pockets of commuters.” Metropolitan areas in the index achieve high placement on the list based on the peak-to-current decrease in gas prices as well as the length of commutes, which vary widely by metro.
Length of commute certainly plays a big part in the high rankings of Oakland, which is fourth in the index; Atlanta (#5) and Los Angeles (#6). Similarly, MMI says, “San Diego (#7) and San Francisco (#8) have a strong balance of sizable gas-price declines and long commutes, returning approximately $1,550 to drivers at today's prices.”
Columbus, OH ranks a surprising second-place in the index, on the strength of the largest decrease in average gas prices from peak to current. A few other Midwest markets appear in MMI's index, including Indianapolis at #3, St. Louis (#9) and Detroit (#10).
Taking the top spot is Washington, DC, where commuters from Northern Virginia and Maryland drive into the District to work. “Based on current prices, the average commuter will save nearly $1,800 per year in the metro due to a combination of steep gas price cuts and length of travel,” according to MMI.
Conspicuously absent are New York City and Chicago, both of whom qualify as urban areas where mass transit plays a significant role in moving around the population. In these areas, says MMI, the “pump dividend” is not as great.
“In other sprawling markets, where commute distances are greater, individuals reap greater benefits from the decrease in oil prices,” according to MMI's latest National Retail Report. “These savings could be short lived, however, when supply and demand realign and oil company profitability returns.”
Regarding where consumers are putting those savings, MMI observes, “Low-income households, in particular, will reallocate cash toward clothes and groceries with gas savings, supporting big-box retailers Wal-Mart and Target. On higher levels of the income scale, Americans will have more discretionary income to dine out, boosting restaurants and fast-food establishments.” That bodes especially well for casual dining chains as well as the quick-serve sector, MMI says.
However, MMI makes the point that lower oil prices will have widespread benefits for retail, although maybe not so much for net-leased gas stations. “The boost in consumption from lower oil prices will create an expansionary environment for retail sales, broadening performance gains across metro areas,” according to MMI.
“Greater liquidity on the lending side and a healthy spread of 80 basis points between secondary and tertiary markets will channel more acquisitions to tertiary markets as long as the local economy and market demographics support it,” the report states. In comparison, spreads between secondary and tertiary markets narrowed to within 30 bps in 2007.
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