MIAMI—Half of all real estate investors in North America plant to amp up commercial real estate buys in 2015. And for the first time ever, Miami ranked among the top 10 in CBRE's North America 2015 Investor Intentions Survey.
Let's dig into the results: First, half of survey respondents said that they expect their acquisition activity to increase in 2015. Among this group, about one-third plans to raise their investment volumes by 20% or more.
“The strength of the economy creating real estate demand, improved property fundamentals and measured supply gains make North America extremely attractive, with investors maintaining a hungry appetite for real estate assets. As was the case in 2014, a majority of investors intend to increase their property acquisitions in 2015,” says Chris Ludeman, global president of CBRE Capital Markets. “A natural consequence of this appetite for real estate assets is the competitive investment environment.”
The most compelling targets for investors in 2015 include most core markets—San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Washington, and Chicago. Dallas and Austin were also considered attractive for investment. But the Southeast is showing up strong, with Charlotte, Atlanta, Miami, and Nashville making the list. (GlobeSt.com also ranked Nashville among the its top growth markets.) Houston dropped out of the top 10 list in the face of challenges lower oil prices bring.
“Miami's robust demand drivers include population and employment growth well above the national average, tremendous international trade, a booming housing market and a globally acclaimed tourism industry,” says Christian R. Lee, vice chairman of CBRE Capital Markets, Institutional Properties. “This is pushing rents up on every asset type. Add to that dynamic, the limited supply of land for future development, and you can see why Miami has become one of the most competitive, sought-after real estate markets in the United States.”
In terms of obstacles to investment, survey respondents pointed to increasing competition and challenges finding assets at tolerable prices. According to CBRE, the challenge of finding attractive assets at favorable or even just acceptable pricing was clearly evident in the 2014 responses when 87% of respondents gave one of these three responses. That said, the 100% response in 2015 highlights the challenge facing investors.
Investors ranked concern about weakness in the global economy as the greatest threat to property markets in North America. Even if the US economy keeps expanding, 29% of respondents are very concerned this year compared to only 10% in 2014. The perception that real estate has become overpriced ranks second, indicating that investors not only see challenges to themselves from the competitive investment landscape, but challenges to the industry. In 2015, 27% selected “overpriced real estate” as the greatest threat to property markets, versus 20% last year.
Most investors are willing—or feel they must—move out the risk curve in 2015, and are looking beyond core/good secondary for investment options to obtain yield. Over 50% of survey respondents selected value-add as the most attractive asset strategy. Another 13% selected opportunistic for a combined 66%, well ahead of last year's 57%.
Investors remain interested primarily in industrial, office, and multifamily product, with industrial leading the charge. Industrial is the preferred property type for investors in 2015, with one-third of survey respondents selecting either of the two industrial categories as their preferred sector. Industrial was also first in 2014 at about the same response rate. Office comes in second highest with 25% of the vote, down just slightly from 2014. Among niche property types, senior housing and healthcare are becoming increasingly appealing.
David Lynn, CEO and co-founder of Everest High Income Property, sees plenty of momentum across the commercial real estate board in 2015. As he sees it, cap rates may go lower in 2015 and that we still have room for growth in the market.
“Multifamily will continue to be strong, particularly in urban markets due to demand driven by the Millennials, as they form new households,” Lynn says. “Industrial will continue to improve based on firm economic activity—as will retail. Office will gain momentum along with general business health. People need to be around other people—and like to be—so work environments will continue to thrive in physical locations where ideas and cooperation foster business growth. The future of office is not all remote on personal electronic devices.”
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