LAS VEGAS—What do politicians have to do with retail? Other than always trying to sell us something, plenty, says Michael Kercheval, president and CEO of the International Council of Shopping Centers. As we begin the countdown to RECon 2015 (May 17 to 20), Kercheval took some time out to discuss with GobeSt.com the state of the retail nation and the outlook for the market.

Indeed, he noted, while some economists might bemoan a potential downturn two years ahead, Kercheval, a former economist himself, sees more upside. “There's a lot more positive news in the industry now with underlying demographics,” he says, pointing to “a big college graduating class last May that is now in the workforce and earning money.” This in addition to a stock market producing “record levels of wealth.”

Interestingly, he cites “positives that could turn negative,” such as the currently strong dollar, which if it remains too strong for too long, can “hurt our exports, which would reflect into the jobs problem longer term.”

But those are fears for another day. Of nearer concern for Kercheval is the impact a nasty election would have on consumer confidence. “Every presidential election has an impact on our industry. And if it's a nasty election, with people pointing out how bad things are, it gets into the consumer psyche and undermines consumer confidence. A lot depends on who is nominated in both parties, and right now it is an unknown. Last year was good, and 2015 is even better. The big if is 2016--primarily because of the election.”

And in this very-good 2015, Kercheval is seeing a sort of re-validation of brick-and-mortar in the wake of worries that the Internet would obsolete physical stores. That experiment was tried and the result, as shoppers are proving, is a new wrinkle in the omni-channel experience of shopping: Service.

“It's all about service,” he says. “The future of our industry is going to be capitalizing on providing something to the economy that can't be gotten anyplace else. And that's face-to-face service and socialization, interactions with other people.”

As proof, he cites a recent Commerce Department report stating that for the first time sales in restaurants and bars “exceeded sales in grocery stores. People are spending more time and getting together for social interaction. Shopping centers are uniquely poised to provide that, whether its service in getting your haircut or sitting down for dinner and then a movie.”

Moving past what he describes as “all of this noise” about the Internet, the web has “become integral to shopping centers providing goods. Service is the only thing that can't be provided on line. As I said, shopping centers are uniquely qualified to do that but in concert with this omni-channel online retailing.”

While last year, the CEO described the merger of web and brick in showrooming, the trend has morphed into what is now called webrooming, wherein essentially not the store, but the dot-com has become the showroom. “The trend is toward online-only retailers opening brick-and-mortar space, recognizing that they need that service link to their consumer that they can't provide online.”

Amazon, almost in replication of the old Service Merchandise, is a prime example as it chases emptied Radio Shack space. On the flip side, brick-and-mortar retailers have learned to embrace the web. The result has been a blossoming of the buy-online-pickup-in-store concept. “Rather than turning them away, traditional retailers have discovered how to capture the online consumer.”

Kercheval sees another consumer service area cropping out of this renewed focus: “WiFi in many centers is store-specific,” he tells GlobeSt.com. “If you're in Old Navy for instance, you get free WiFi, but as soon as you step out of the store, you lose it.” Kercheval sees more retail owners—the Simons and General Growths—launching one overall WiFi network as a major nod to serving the consumer. “Little things like that will facilitate omni-channel shopping.”

The discovery, or rediscovery, of service is largely the product of the live-work-play revolution occurring in cities around the nation. A pioneering grocery store or restaurant will open in an underserved CBD, “and people start building apartments,” says Kercheval. “Put in a charter school, quality food and good housing and your downtown blooms. The trend is totally tied to retail service.”

As noted above, Radio Shack came up in the conversation, so we asked about the implications of such news as well as reports that Toys 'R Us is shuttering its once-heralded Times Square location. Kercheval was unfazed, in the belief that it says more about the retailers than about retailing.

“Both have been on shaky financial footing for more than a decade,” he states. “It has little to do with merchandising and a lot to do with financial structuring.”

Turning to RECon, the CEO reports a record number of companies—more than 1,000—participating, with roughly 35,000 attendees expected to walk the more than one million square feet of RECon floor space.

Also on target for this conference is ICSC's Specialty Retail Entrepreneur Expo, which was recently added to ICSC's programming after the recent acquisition of Pinnacle Publishing Group. SPREE, with its focus on cart, kiosk, and temporary retail, will “connect thousands of the specialty retail industry's key players with RECon's established network, offering both markets the unparalleled opportunity to gather under one roof and make deals,” according to an ICSC statement.

 

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John Salustri

John Salustri has covered the commercial real estate industry for nearly 25 years. He was the founding editor of GlobeSt.com, and is a four-time recipient of the Excellence in Journalism award from the National Association of Real Estate Editors.