WASHINGTON, DC—Numerous reports, including most notable of all, the Commerce Department's recent report that the US GDP contracted in the first quarter, have painted an increasingly dismal picture of the US economy. So it is with some relief that the Federal Reserve Bank's so-called beige book offers a moderately positive assessment of the economy.
"Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest overall economic activity expanded during the reporting period from early April to late May," it said.
Published eight times a year, the beige book provides a regional look at the economies in each of the Federal Reserve's 12 districts. It looks at wage growth and such activities as consumer spending and bank lending. It also looks at various sectors, including construction, which happily, was described in positive terms by the Fed in this report.
It found that residential real estate activity and construction expanded in most districts since the prior report, and outlooks were largely positive.
For the multifamily asset class, it reported that apartment demand was strong in the Dallas District, and "held steady" in the Richmond District. Tight inventories and strong sales continued to push up prices, except for at the high end of the Manhattan market, according to New York's report.
Strong multifamily construction was reported in the Cleveland, Atlanta, and San Francisco Districts, and the Richmond District continued to experience steady apartment building activity.
In general, commercial real estate leasing and construction activity improved in most districts, according to the report, and outlooks were optimistic.
Some regional highlights:
- The New York District reported a strengthening industrial market and steady office and retail leasing demand.
- In the Boston District, demand for office space held steady at a decent to solid pace, except for in Hartford where demand was slow.
- The Dallas District continued to see active industrial, retail, and office leasing activity, with the exception of the Houston office market.
- Both commercial real estate development and leasing activity increased across the San Francisco District, mostly fueled by growth in the technology industry.
- The St. Louis District noted a tight office market for Class A space, and continued commercial and industrial construction.
- Commercial building increased in the Chicago District driven by demand for industrial and office space. New hotel and office development in downtown Chicago was compelling retailers to relocate.
- The Cleveland and Atlanta Districts noted increased construction backlogs, and shortages of skilled labor remained a constraint on construction activity in some districts, such as Boston, Cleveland, and San Francisco.
The beige book also indicated that "slight" wage growth was reported in most of the districts -- a closely-watched economy development by both the Fed and the rest of the economy. It is widely assumed that lackluster wage growth is one major reason why the Fed has not begun to raise interest rates. Another look at how the US employment market is faring will come this Friday, with the release of the US Labor Department's monthly employment report.
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