ORLANDO—It seems like everywhere Tampa lawyer Ed Whitson looks these days, commercial real estate activity continues to heat up. Condos, office buildings, warehouses, retail centers—all kinds of properties are getting snapped up in deals that are often taking only weeks to close.

Whitson, a partner in the Tampa office of the Arnstein & Lehr law firm, isn't complaining. His firm, which works with commercial real estate lenders, managers, buyers and owners, is busier than ever.

But he thinks that some of the decisions lenders are contemplating could cause problems that could lead to a significantly abbreviated up cycle compared to the last one we experienced. He explains, “What I'm seeing leads me to believe this market upswing may be shorter than the last one, and rockier.”

GlobeSt.com talked to Whitson about his concerns about this upswing, and what he is recommending that lenders do to cover their downside risk in part one of this exclusive interview. Be sure to come back to the Orlando edition tomorrow, where Whitson will discuss how long he thinks the recovery will last.

GlobeSt.com: What are you seeing that makes you think this recovery will be shorter than previous ones?

Whitson: In an economic cycle, you usually have a more gradual recovery rather than the spike that we're seeing now. With that in mind, I believe this up cycle will most likely be far more abbreviated than the last one.

GlobeSt.com: What is leading to the current climate of intense activity?

Whitson: Banks are showing more flexibility in lending, and there's a search for yield on the part of the banks. This can lead to more aggressive underwriting.  In short, more money is pursuing fewer deals.

This leads me to believe that we will probably see more fluctuation in this cycle than the standard parabolic model. The ups and downs won't be as dramatic, but they will be more frequent. This cycle will be more self-correcting.

GlobeSt.com: Are you seeing this just in Florida, or elsewhere?

Whitson: We are seeing this around the country, but real estate is the economic engine of Florida. While we saw a dramatic downturn, the state is having an equally robust recovery.

Some areas of the country, like Texas, were relatively well balanced during the downturn and continue to look that way. But other areas are more concerning. In particular, I think the outlook for California right now is a bit uncertain for a number of reasons, and that worries us in Florida because we are similar to California in the type of systemic growth we've been experiencing.

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