LOS ANGELES—There are four things you need to know about Chinese investment into US real estate development: it is very new, accelerating rapidly, will keep doing so for years and is coming to your city.

No readily available chronology of these projects exists, so here is my own. It all began with Beijing-based Xinyuan's October 2012 purchase of a condo site in Brooklyn, NY, breaking ground in 2013. In February '13, Vanke, one of China's largest developers, announced a joint venture with Tishman Speyer for a luxury condominium tower in San Francisco. In April, Zarsion announced a redevelopment project for Oakland's Brooklyn Basin. Greenland—China's largest state-owned developer—disclosed its four-tower Los Angeles Metropolis project in July. In November, it was China Construction America's mixed-use project in Jersey City, NJ. In December, Landsea's purchase of the Jordan Ranch townhouse project in Dublin, CA; Greenland's huge Atlantic Yards project in Brooklyn; and Shenzhen-listed Oceanwide's purchase of the Fig Central project in Los Angeles.

2014 began with smaller players: Shenglong Group bought a Los Angeles parcel; Plus Investment acquired one in Bellevue, WA; and Guangzhou R&F bought one in San Francisco. Then, in February, Vanke announced a joint venture with Hines for a 61-story condo tower in New York City. In July, Dalian Wanda, another very large developer, announced an 89-story tower in Chicago. Shenzhen Hazensbought the Luxe Hotel in Los Angeles in August, promising to develop the adjacent lots, while Wanda bought 9900 Wilshire in Beverly Hills with plans for a $1.2-billion development and Landsea publicized a Weehawken, New Jersey condo complex joint venture with Lennar. Insurance giant Anbang closed the year by buying the Waldorf Astoria in New York and announcing massive renovations. 

Busy as last year was, more Chinese development projects in the US have been announced in just the first five months of 2015 than in all of '14. January: Oceanwide's mega-project at First and Mission in San Francisco and China Construction America's full-block site in Miami. February and March: three smaller projects by Guangzhou R&F in San Francisco; one by Genzon Group in Burlingame, CA; and one by Shenglong Group in Los Angeles. In April, Fosun Group, China's largest privately owned conglomerate, joint-ventured with JD Carlisle for a 47-story condo tower in New York; and two of China's largest insurance companies, Ping An and China Life, partnered with Tishman Speyer for Boston's Pier 4 redevelopment. Last month, LT Global announced its Platinum Triangle mixed-use project in Anaheim, CA. 

Most of these projects will cost hundreds of millions of dollars and, in several instances, $1 billion or more. Not one has been completed—all are either under construction or still in the design and entitlement phase. Nobody really knows how profitable any of them will be.

Yet that uncertainty won't slow the pace of new Chinese development projects here. Absent a global catastrophe, Chinese real estate investment into the US will rapidly accelerate over the coming years—regardless of whether the Chinese economy speeds up or slows down, or whether particular projects hit their profit targets.  Instead, two dominating forces control.

First, held back for decades by restrictive foreign exchange rules while China's economy boomed, Chinese money is now eager to flow out. And China's leadership is steadily opening the floodgates. For example, China is soon expected to announce a program (QDII2) raising the registration ceiling for overseas corporate investments to $1 billion and authorizing individuals in six pilot cities to invest half of their wealth overseas. Liberalization will continue, because it serves China's fundamental goals, such as gaining acceptance of the renmenbi as a global reserve currency. The International Monetary Fund will not include the renmenbi in the basket of currencies with so-called special drawing rights—joining the US dollar, euro, British pound and Japanese yen—unless the flow of renmenbi out of China becomes much freer. China is obliging, and that flow will never reverse.

Second, the US is a favored investment destination as the largest market in the world, where the rule of law strongly protects property rights in a politically and economically stable, environmentally safe, and technologically advanced environment with highly skilled and productive workforces.  Real estate is a treasured asset class, and to the Chinese eye, US real estate is still priced low—even in New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Other cities are cheaper still, hence Wanda's tower in Chicago, China Communications' block in Miami and the Ping An/China Life joint venture in Boston. They are isolated now, but are sure to be joined by other projects both there and in Houston, Atlanta, San Diego, Dallas, Seattle and many other cities.

The Rhodium Group's newly released “New Neighbors” report (May 20, 2015) concludes that Chinese companies are already operating in 340 of 435 US congressional districts. Chinese-funded real estate development projects will not be far behind.

Mike Margolis is a partner at law firm Blank Rome and heads up the firm's team serving Chinese businesses and entrepreneurs operating in the US. He may be contacted at [email protected]. The views expressed here are the author's own.

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