LOS ANGELES—From Y2K to online shopping, past experience has taught lenders a thing or two about how to cope with potential adversity. Speakers on the “Debt for Every Deal: Lessons in Learning” panel during RealShare National Investment & Finance here last week shared several lessons they've learned going through real estate's cycles.
Moderator Robert Hodge, senior director for Marcus & Millichap, asked the panelists what the lending environment looks like, an all agreed that it looks rosy. “No one can debate that it's a great lending environment, between low interest rates and lots of equity and debt capital in the market,” said Kevin Pleasant, regional manager for commercial mortgage lending for Chase. “It will continue with tighter spreads.”
Jeffrey Weidell, president of NorthMarq Capital, concurred, but added “there was a big demand for capital earlier this year, so we're beginning to see signs of constraint.”
Hodge asked if lenders are getting any less competitive than they've been, and Eric Ealy, regional director, western region, for Freddie Mac, addressed the GSE's liquidity, saying, “Freddie Mac is not running out of money; they just adjusted what was covered under the caps. We expect to do $44 billion this year in production.”
Adam Petriella, EVP for Coldwell Banker Commercial Alliance, said underwriters are more disciplined and tight and are keeping the market stabilized, and Karine Clark, senior director of lending for Bolour Associates, added that the influx of capital has compressed rates. “We are a short-term lender, a bridge lender, and we offer a quick close. We're unique and a little higher-priced than general lenders.”
Petriella said the ratio of acquisitions loans to refinancing loans at his firm is 70/30, and Weidell said institutional owners are balancing whether or not they should sell. Hodge asked, “Are you more aggressive on acquisitions or refis?” and Pleasant said, “We look at them as very much the same. We're seeing a lot more cash-out refis.”
Clark said for her firm, “It's really a market-by-market as well as a use-by-use decision. For us it's land and development as well as refis.” Ealy said Freddie Mac is lending in all markets, and decisions are based on the sponsor. “Las Vegas has been up and down. We scale back the LTV when the market is down. For us, cash is king. If you have cash in the deal we will do the best we can.”
Hodge asked the panelists, “What are borrowers requesting that is challenging to provide?” Pleasant answered, “Interest only; the whole gamut with no pre-pay. We are very refined in our credit box.
Weidell said, “Other than bad real estate, single tenant is a problem where the lease may turn in three years. Also, retail is still very fickle.”
Ealy said borrowers are requesting stronger bargains in the low-cap-rate environment. “If the cash flow isn't there, we're not going to lend on it.”
Petriella said borrowers have a need for speed and certainty, and in New York and Los Angeles, non-contingent offers are needed in order to achieve this. “Borrowers need to show a track record for their ideas.”
Clark said single-tenant marijuana distributors have been a challenge for her firm. “We're all about the property.”'
Ealy teased Pleasant that Chase has been “a thorn, a strong competitor. Certainty of execution is a way to compete with banks and other lenders.”
Weidell said, “We're not always competing head to head on the same terms. Borrowers don't always want the same things,” and Petriella added, “You need to look at every situation differently.”
Hodge pointed out that $265 billion of US debt is coming due in the next few years. “What will you do to combat that?”
Weidell said, “It's like Y2K all over again. We'll get there and no one will notice. We see it as more of an opportunity rather than a threat.” Petriella said, “We're being very competitive. We're not just sitting around waiting or it to happen. We can lend up the stack for challenging situations on maturing loans.”
Clark said, “We see CMBS borrowers who haven't planned for this; we get lucky with them sometimes.”
Pleasant added, “We're seeing some within our box, but people have been turned off with their prior CMBS experience.”
Ealy said, “We are stepping up and looking to get a big piece of that pie. We are gearing up in every way possible staffing-wise. We are ready for the wave.”
When asked for predictions, Pleasant said he anticipates production volumes to remain very high. Weidell said there's a lot of apartment development coming to market; we're later in the cycle, and it will be a great year, but it will be choppy. Ealy predicted a strong 2015, and Petriella called the current environment a “golden era, from family offices in the debt market and the kinds of loans Bolour is doing, the strength will continue.”
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