NEW YORK CITY—Ever wonder what keeps New York City real estate executives awake at night? Well, according to a survey, their worries include an interest rate hike, China's slowing growth and another Superstorm Sandy-type event to hit the area.
According to the Spring 2015 Gotham Commercial Real Estate Monitor survey conducted by accounting firm Marks Paneth, 74% of polled executives say an interest rate increase would have the biggest negative effect on New York commercial property values. However, 57% argue the slowing Chinese economy would have a negative impact, and even more 62% believe a major weather event would have a negative impact on property values in New York City. The Mark Paneth survey polled more than 100 New York commercial property owners, brokers, agents, engineers, accountants and lawyers specializing in the commercial space. Interviews were completed during the period of February 25th to March 31st, 2015.
"Interest rates are always a concern, but professionals are also increasingly concerned about the impact of sudden shocks and distant events," says William H. Jennings, partner-in-charge of the real estate group at Marks Paneth. "They understand how complex the New York real estate market has become and the degree to which distant and unexpected events can have a major effect on values."
Other key takeaways from the survey include the feeling from 84% of the executives that the proliferation of investments by foreign oligarchs in the Manhattan residential property distorts the borough's residential market. While 41% believe the distortion in values occurs at all levels, 43% contend that the effect is happening only with high-priced properties
Executives do not believe that international crises are always bad for New York real estate. A total of 57% agree that current international crises benefit the commercial property market because investment dollars flow out of these troubled foreign economies into New York properties. Only 8% say international crises are hurting the New York property market.
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