CALABASAS, CA—“Steady as she goes” is often a safe direction for a helmsman to follow, and it also appears to suit the US economy. Certainly, when it comes to hiring a steady forward pace has benefited demand in both the apartment and office sectors, writes Marcus & Millichap's Hessam Nadji.

Senior EVP and managing director of research and advisory services at MMI, the GlobeSt.com Thought Leader notes in the firm's latest Research Brief that thanks in part to a consistent pace of hiring last month, unemployment and underemployment reached seven-year lows. He adds, however, that the declines were “largely driven by a drop in the labor force, the share of employable people working or seeking a job.”

Such decreases, he adds, aren't uncommon. “In recent months, young adults in particular appeared to favor charitable work and unpaid internships for the summer,” writes Nadji. “Modest wage gains and a dip in the participation rate will likely have little effect on the Federal Reserve's stance on a rate hike, and a modest adjustment remains probable in September.”

Nadji's assessment was borne out by the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's latest meeting, released shortly after he posted his blog. Participants at the FOMC meeting said they “would need additional information indicating that economic growth was strengthening, that labor market conditions were continuing to improve and that inflation was moving back toward the committee's objective” before raising interest rates.

In terms of hiring by sector, there were winners and losers both in the month of June and in the first half of 2015. Although goods-producing segments lagged last month, Nadji notes that 64,000 professional and business services positions fueled growth in the service sector. In addition, he writes, hiring for new stores drove most of the increase in trade employment of 49,000 workers in June.

“Outside of the service sector, construction payrolls were flat last month,” observes Nadji. “Shortages of skilled workers are limiting hiring”—a theme also sounded recently by the Associated General Contractors of America—“while many firms that emerged from the recession are using greater discipline to manage growth.

Between Jan. 1 and June 30 of this year, job creation was down compared to the year-ago period, a decrease Nadji ascribes largely to the elimination of 70,000 positions in natural resources and mining due to lower oil prices. Additionally, the stronger dollar has reduced the volume of exports, resulting in a far slower pace of hiring in the manufacturing sector. Conversely, education and health services have led the way in employment sectors growing at a faster pace than a year ago, while financial services hiring was up more than 40% year-over-year to 78,000 new positions.

Accordingly, Nadji sees “significant momentum” for the US office sector in this year's second half.  “Rising needs for larger spaces to accommodate expansions, plus subdued construction, will drive down vacancy 80 basis points this year to 14.5%,” he notes. At the same time, the limited competition from new development for the balance of the year will support a 4.1% increase in the average asking rent.

Already down by 60 bps YTD is apartment vacancy, hitting 4.1% at midyear, “Despite significant construction the past two years, lower vacancy is a strong sign that the apartment sector faces few oversupply risks this year,” observes Nadji. While construction will remain elevated, “it's concentrated in a handful of major markets where pockets of high-end rentals could face lease-up hurdles in the second half of 2015. Outside these core areas, the performance outlook remains exceptionally positive.”