NEW YORK CITY—In September of 2000, Jason Ader, a then lodging analyst for New York-based Bear Stearns (which has since failed as part of the global financial crisis and recession and was subsequently sold to JPMorgan Chase), warned investors that surging oil prices, the weak Euro and other signs of economic trouble to come would soon adversely impact the travel and hospitality industries, leading to decreased hotel occupancy rates.

The warning came amid Bear Stearns' own decrease in net income for the third quarter of 5.7%. While the company's revenue rose 6% and its earnings per share also rose, the company had 9% fewer shares than last year's third-quarter because of stock buyouts, and its investment banking revenues decreased 11%. Stock shares, however, had gone up 41% since late July of that year. Bear Stearns, at the time, was becoming one of an increasingly shrinking number of mid-size firms here in New York, as the trend in takeovers was growing.

At the time, Ader said of the lodging industry that, while he had upgraded the lodging sector in January and the Bear Stearns Large Cap Hotel Index had risen more than 25% since then, the industry may top out. He explained, "The lodging industry is very dependent on the overall economy and if there is any slow down it won't be long before it trickles down to the hotels' bottom line."