BOSTON—A panel of commercial developers and financiers agree that a possible interest rate hike later this year will have little impact on the availability of real estate capital in Boston.
Panelists at last week's RealShare Boston's Investment and Finance Outlook panel agreed that domestic and foreign investors are competing for office, research and development and multifamily product in Boston. The panelists included Tawan Davis, chief investment officer, The Peebles Corp.; Greg Lauze, co-founder and managing partner of NorthBridge CRE Advisors; Kevin McCall, CEO, Paradigm Properties; Robert Plumb, managing director, AEW Capital Management; Michael Ciaburri, founder, Worth Avenue Capital, LLC; and Edward Hershfield, partner, Brown Rudnick, moderator.
The panel said that capital is plentiful for most type of transactions. Davis noted that in the Gateway cities, such as Boston, the large and small transactions draw significant investor interest. However, it is the middle-market deals of between $60-million to $100 million where there are investment opportunities, particularly on the debt side, he said.
Davis later noted that international investment interest is strong in major cities, including Boston, on both the East and West Coasts of the United States. He related that there is significant foreign investment interest in Peebles' $400-million Viola Back Bay project. In January the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority and MassDOT selected The Peebles Corp. as the developer for Turnpike Air Rights Parcel 13 in the Back Bay and the adjacent Hynes Convention Center station on the Green Line. The proposal calls for a 390,000-square-foot development to include 85 rental and 88 condominium residential units, a 156-key hotel, 20,000 square feet of retail space, and 138 accessory parking spaces.
“We have had some of the largest Chinese players try and get into that project already,” Davis said. Lauze related that the city of Boston “is certainly on the map” for sovereign wealth funds looking to invest in commercial real estate.
McCall said a possible interest rate increase later this year would not dampen the bullish investment climate in Boston. “We have been waiting for rates to move for two years at least. Everybody knows its coming… I don't think that it is going to slow us down until we have a weakening in the economy.”
All of the panelists said that because the specter of interest rate hikes has been forecast for some time, their firms have factored the increases into their investments and operations and don't expect any material impact if rates were to rise later this year.
AEW Capital's Plumb said that he is optimistic and believes “there are a ton of opportunities in Boston.” However, he did say that there are some headwinds for some sectors of the Boston market. “There is going to be some pain in the multifamily market. No doubt about it,” due to oversupply, he said.
The panel also took sides on the city's bid for the 2024 Olympics. The panel, much like city residents according to recent polls, seemed to be evenly split on the issue. McCall said he is leaning against supporting the Olympic bid because of several concerns, including the allocation of equity that would result from bringing the Olympics to Boston. “I am just not convinced that it won't disproportionally negatively impact communities in our city that don't need or deserve to be negatively impacted,” McCall said. He also expressed concerns about taxpayers having to foot the bill for cost overruns that he believes are baked into the project.
McCall, Plumb and others said that a great benefit the Olympics would bring would be to make much-needed improvements to the city's infrastructure. Davis, who worked in the administration of New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg heading the city's efforts to foster public-private partnership with the New York City Economic Development Corp., said that Boston will have an opportunity to improve its infrastructure and revitalize troubled sections of the city through rezoning. He related that New York City's failed bid to land the 2012 Olympics did produce some tangible benefits that included billons of dollars in public and private infrastructure investments and rezoning of areas that are now being developed such as the Hudson Yards in Manhattan and Atlantic Yards in Brooklyn. He also said that the bid for the Olympics led to the revitalization of Harlem.
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