ARLINGTON, VA—A pair of leading metrics for development—construction employment and forward momentum—moved upward in July. The Associated General Contractors of America said Friday that construction employment hit the highest level since February 2009, while unemployment in the sector hit a 14-year low. Looking ahead, Dodge Data & Analytics said Friday its Dodge Momentum Index, a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, rose to 125.3 in July, up 5.4% from its June reading of 118.9.
Although AGC sees the July numbers as heartening, the association also highlights some underlying concerns. July's increase brought employment to a six-year high of 6.383 million, but only 6,000 jobs were added during the month. That's less than a third of the monthly average of 19,250 seen during the past year and a sign that hiring is slowing, especially since that monthly average tapered off over the past five months. And AGC once again pointed to a diminishing pool of available qualified labor.
“It is encouraging to see construction employment rising again, but the industry could hire many more workers if they were available,” says Ken Simonson, chief economist with AGC. “The lack of experienced construction workers may be impeding the industry's ability to start or complete new projects. The recent acceleration in construction spending may soon level off unless the sector can draw in more workers with the right skills.”
As it is, construction spending rose 12% between June 2014 and this past June to an annualized $1.65 trillion, AGC says, citing data from the Census Bureau. That marked the highest year-over-year increase since 2006, and also the highest monthly total since July 2008.
July's posting for the Dodge Momentum Index returns it to its generally rising trend over the past four years. Dodge Data cites improving real estate market fundamentals in the commercial sector and increased bond-related funding for institutional projects, which are expected to continue exerting a positive influence over the index through the remainder of 2015. The increase in July compared to June was led by strong gains for both institutional planning, up 6.0%, and commercial planning, up 4.9%.
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