WASHINGTON, DC—This is it. Barring an unexpected meltdown or global calamity, the Federal Reserve Bank will start raising interest rates in September. It has all but taken out digital billboard space in Times Square to telegraph its intent.

On Monday, Atlanta Fed President and CEO Dennis Lockhart delivered a speech to the Atlanta Press Club, in which he highlighted the economic progress the US has made since the Great Recession and the anticipated Federal Open Market Committee decision to move the federal funds rate off zero. All that previous talk about the decision being data-dependent -- talk to which business has clung for dear life? It is still true but Lockhart for one is not waiting for a 100% all clear from the data.

"As the Committee approaches what I consider a historic decision, I am not expecting the data signals to point uniformly in the same direction. I don't need this. I'm prepared to see mixed data. Data are inherently noisy month to month and quarter to quarter. Given the progress made over the recovery and the overall recent tone of the economy, I for one do not intend to let the gyrating needle of monthly data be the decisive factor in decision making."

The economy can handle it, he said. "For me, the cumulative evidence of the economy's healing, and the likelihood the economy is on a path to achieving the Fed's mandated objectives, makes me comfortable that the economy can handle a gradually rising interest-rate environment."

But try telling that to the financial markets, which reacted to the Labor Department's report that the economy added 215,000 jobs to the payrolls in July as though a death knell had sounded.

In Monday's edition of Trepp Talk, Research Associate Joe McBride tallied up the damage in this post.

The Dow and S&P were down 2% and 1.5%, respectively, on the week, he noted.

Conduit pricing, especially after Friday, became more volatile with 2005 vintages showing the most fluctuations, he wrote. Trading volume reached $300 million on Tuesday and Wednesday but "otherwise was relatively anemic."

Granted, there were other events during the week that could have behind some of this -- the Republican presidential debate aired on Thursday night, for example, McBride said.

"Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio seemed to be the big gainers on Thursday, but we're sure the only name that will matter to investors in the near term is Janet Yellen," he concluded.

Yes indeed, if these events are a taste of what is to come when rates rise.

Instant Insights /

Last Week's Preview of What Will Happen When Rates Rise

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