IRVINE, CA—More than 40% of all homes in the US may be at a high or very high risk for natural hazards. That according to a report released today by RealtyTrac, one of the nation's leading sources for comprehensive housing data.

The firm's 2015 US Natural Disaster Housing Risk Report, which found that 35.8 million US single family homes and condos with a combined estimated market value of $6.6 trillion are in counties with high or very high natural hazard risk. Those 35.8 million homes represent 43% of the 83.4 million single family homes and condos in all counties analyzed for the report.

For the report RealtyTrac assigned a natural disaster risk score to 2,318 counties nationwide with sufficient home value data available. Based on its score, each county was assigned to one of five risk categories for overall risk of natural disaster: Very High, High, Moderate, Low and Very Low. Similar scoring and ranking was also used to rate risk for each of the five natural disasters individually (see methodology below).

“In the interest of personal safety and protecting the value of what is likely their biggest financial asset, prospective buyers and investors should be aware of any natural disaster risk impacting a potential home purchase,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “There is no reason homebuyers need to be surprised with natural disaster risk information when wading through a stack of disclosures at the closing table given the widespread availability of this data online and even through mobile apps.

“In most cases learning about natural disaster risk will not stop a home sale, but it will help buyers make a better-informed decision about where to buy and also be prepared in terms of appropriate insurance coverage and family contingency plans depending on the type of natural disaster risks most affecting the home they end up purchasing,” Blomquist added.

States with the most homes in High risk or Very High risk counties for overall natural disaster risk are California (8.4 million), Florida (6.7 million), New York (2.4 million), New Jersey (2.3 million) and North Carolina (2.3 million).

Metro areas with the most homes in High risk or Very High risk counties for overall natural disaster risk are New York (3.5 million), Los Angeles (2.5 million), Miami (1.9 million), Houston (1.2 million), and Riverside-San Bernardino in Southern California (1.1 million).

“The weather is beautiful in SoCal, but we are statistically more susceptible to the risk of fire, floods and earthquakes than most areas. Our agents must be articulate in explaining the higher risks to buyers. People have to be able trust their agent to fully disclose the risks of natural disasters and homeownership to allow buyers to make the most informed decisions,” said Mark Hughes, chief operating officer with First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market. “A well-informed knowledgeable buyer is best prepared to take on the potential risks associated with SoCal homeownership.”

The report found that 24.5 million single family homes and condos (29% of the 83.4 million total) with a combined estimated market value of $4.7 trillion are in counties with a High risk or Very High risk for hurricanes.

States with the most homes in High risk or Very High risk counties for hurricanes are Florida (6.7 million), North Carolina (2.4 million), Virginia (2.0 million), New York (1.9 million) and New Jersey (1.8 million).

Metro areas with the most homes in High risk or Very high risk counties for hurricanes are New York (3.0 million), Miami (1.9 million), Washington, D.C. (1.8 million), Boston (1.1 million) and Tampa (953,000).

“The allure of South Florida's sun and surf, for most, outweigh any concern of a hurricane threat,” said Mike Pappas, CEO and president of the Keyes Company covering the South Florida market. “The improved communication, continual education and enhanced predictability all give comfort to our coastal residents. History has shown that we are not only able to survive but in fact thrive with insurance and property improvements after a storm hits.”

Home price appreciation over the past three years has been stronger in higher risk counties for natural disaster. In counties with a High risk for overall natural disaster, home prices increased 16.6% between 2012 and 2015 on average, while home prices in counties with a Very High risk for natural disasters increased 20.4% during the same time period. Home prices in Low risk counties increased an average of 10.1% over the past three years, and home prices in Very Low risk counties increased an average of 12.8% during the same time period.

“Across Ohio, amenities abound to assist in the mitigation of potential risk of natural hazards,” said Michael Mahon, president at HER Realtors, covering the Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus markets in Ohio, where just one county was rated High for overall natural disaster risk despite the state having the seventh highest number of homes in counties rated High risk for tornados. “Given the risk of tornadoes some homebuyers are only interested in seeing homes with basements to mitigate the risk.”

Report methodology

In its second annual U.S. Natural Disaster Housing Risk Report, RealtyTrac analyzed five different natural disasters posing a risk to housing: earthquake risk, hurricane risk, tornado risk, flood risk and wildfire risk. Based on these five factors, each of the counties analyzed was assigned a combined natural disaster risk score from 0 to 300, with 300 representing the most risk (190 was the highest score among all the counties). Based on these scores, counties were assigned one of five different categories of risk of natural disaster: Very High Risk (Score of 90 or higher); High Risk (55 to 89 score); Moderate Risk (30 to 54 score); Low (15 to 29 score); and Very Low (0 to 14 score).

Instant Insights /

Nearly Half of US Homes at Risk for Natural Disasters

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