MIAMI—Is the market overheating? Headed for another bust? Or did developers learn their lessons from the last go round?
You might get a slightly different opinion based on whom you ask. We asked Marc Coleman, president of Development at One Real Estate Investment, to get his thoughts on these questions.
“I think the market might be getting ahead of itself in some areas,” Coleman tells GlobeSt.com. “Florida is well-known for its market ups and downs, and the last one was particularly bad.
What is different for developers and their projects this time, Coleman says, is the lack of leverage. From his perspective, lenders are much more cautious and most condo projects require 50% cash deposits. That, he says, means that lenders are not on the hook as much and buyers have much more incentive to close and not walk away from their units and deposits.
“Also, in the past, buyer deposits were such a small part of the capital stack that even without enough pre-sales, a lot of projects went ahead because they had enough funds from lenders and equity partners to let them build,” Coleman says. “They figured they would get the sales later. This didn't happen, and when the few buyers they had walked, it was a perfect storm.”
Where do we stand right now? In a better place than before the last bust. Right now, Coleman says, buyer deposits are a much larger share of a project's finances. So if developers don't get the pre-sales, he says, they won't have the funds to build, and the projects will get pulled off the table, curtailing supply.
“If there is a downturn, this should create a much softer landing for the market so those projects that do have enough sales to get started should be OK,” Coleman says. “Things might go sideways for a while, but ultimately what is important is to have a long-term view. Miami is a wonderful market with very strong long-term growth ahead of it.”
Want more insight from Coleman? Check out my last piece featuring him: Wynwood Ops Lure Ex-Related Exec.
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