WASHINGTON, DC—On both macroeconomic indicators and real estate indicators, the outlook among an Urban Land Institute consensus of economists and analysts is slightly less bullish than it was six months ago. The ULI survey of 48 experts at 36 major real estate organizations, released Wednesday morning, projects three more years of real estate growth in a variety of indicators, but in many instances the consensus estimates come in below the more optimistic projections released this past spring. That being said, the forecast remains generally positive, if “not as completely bullish” as participants offered in April, ULI VP Anita Kramer said in a webinar discussing the results.

Although the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.8% by 2017—a lower figure than the 5.0% projection in the previous ULI survey—so too has respondents' estimates for job growth in two of the next three years. The previous survey projected that 3.15 million jobs would be added this year, three million in 2016 and 2.5 million in '17; this time the consensus is for 2.8 million, 2.72 million and 2.6 million, respectively.

The economists and analysts polled by ULI also predict a significant slowdown for the annual change in the Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Index in '17. Following 10% growth this year and 6% next year, it will dip to 4.5% the year after that, the lowest growth figure in 15 years.

Conversely, the survey participants revised upward their projections of commercial property sales volume for two of the next three years: $30 billion more in sales this year than the $470-billion estimate the previous forecast offered, and $10 billion more in '16 than the $500-billion projected this past April. At about $500 billion per year, all three years will be well above the 14-year average of $259 billion, according to ULI. However, returns for equity REITs and institutional-quality direct real estate investments are expected to dip below the long-term average for all four property types in all three forecast years.

Moderator Lee Menifee, managing director at Prudential Real Estate Investors and a survey participant himself, queried his fellow participants about their take on the survey results as well as the webinar audience's view of them. Seventy-three percent of the audience felt the forecast overall was “just right,” compared to 22% who thought it was too optimistic and 5% who considered it not optimistic enough.

All three webinar panelists—Margaret Harbaugh, VP at Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing; Steven Laposa, principal, Alvarez & Marsal; and Andy McCulloch, managing director, real estate research & analytics at Green Street Advisors—said they'd be a little more bearish on some of the consensus forecasts, although Laposa acknowledged that the audience's assessment of the forecast mirrored that at his own firm. “We're always looking for the turning signal,” Laposa said during Wednesday's webinar. “What are we missing; is it really as rosy as we think?”