ATLANTA—Call it a winning streak. Atlanta's industrial market has seen an average of 3 million square feet of absorption every quarter over the last four years, according to a CBRE Atlanta Research report.
The third quarter of 2015 is no different. CBRE reports a positive trend continues with 2.6 million square feet of absorption. Although this is slightly less than the average, there's a good reason: a large user on the outskirts of the Atlanta industrial market departed. Otherwise, Atlanta would have posted a whopping 5 million square feet of absorption for the quarter.
"Atlanta's industrial market has two primary drivers—transportation and population,” Todd Barton, first vice president of CBRE Industrial Properties, tells GlobeSt.com. “Our transportation network—HJ Intl Airport, 5 interstates in GA, 2 class 1 railroads with intermodal facilities, Port of Savannah—makes us the clear hub of the southeast for regional distribution. Atlanta's population base, now over 5.7 million, is a huge driver of the industrial base. As our population continues to grow get, our industrial base will respond accordingly."
Atlanta Liquidation's purchase of a 500,000 square foot industrial facility in Conyers put the Snapfinger submarket ahead of the others as far as absorption, with the Northeast following. Total year-to-date industrial absorption accounts for a 34% rise over the first three quarters of 2014. If the trend remains consistent through the end of the year, CBRE reports 2015 is poised to surpass 2014's 17.4 million square feet of absorption.
As a result, speculative developments are sprouting throughout the metro area. The third quarter saw 4.1 million square feet of speculative industrial product deliver. That will alleviate pent-up demand, but is causing a short-term slight rise in vacancy for the first time in 10 quarters. Six additional build-to-suit projects are expected to deliver by the end of the year. The average size of these industrial speculative buildings is 580,000 square feet, compared to 240,000 square feet in previous development cycles, a further indication of Atlanta's demand for big blocks of space.
“Atlanta's industrial market accommodated more than 4 million square feet of new deliveries and one large-scale move-out of more than 1 million square feet, with little effect on overall vacancy,” says Dan Wagner, CBRE Southeast Research Manager. “Offsetting newly vacant space of this magnitude speaks to the health and resiliency of the market. As multiple large build-to-suit projects are expected to deliver in the fourth quarter of 2015, and no large move-outs are anticipated at this time, we expect vacancy to continue to decline in Atlanta until more speculative properties are completed.”
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