SAN FRANCISCO—E-commerce continues making inroads into US retail, with figures from Custora showing Black Friday online orders up 15.6% year over year. Thanksgiving e-commerce volume was also up by double digits compared to the year prior. Yet despite the implications that the uptick in Web-based retailing has for logistics real estate demand, Prologis Inc. sees a more disciplined approach to development in the space compared to previous cycles.

"The great recession laid the groundwork for more conservatism on new commercial development in the US," says Chris Caton, SVP with Prologis Research. "Today, key players are more disciplined and are in a better position to respond to shifting market dynamics."

A new white paper from Prologis identifies five factors underpinning this emphasis on discipline. They include a movement toward larger-scale institutions as key players, greater aversion to risk, new lending constraints, a shortage of real estate professionals experienced in development and better information to inform development decisions.