NEW YORK CITY—The outcome of what many see as a pivotal race for the presidency is just one of the factors creating uncertainty in 2016. Among other considerations, there are also questions about the health of the job market and concerns about the impact commercial real estate prices will see from the Federal Reserve's decision to end its longstanding zero interest rate policy. In spite of these uncertainties, Integra Realty Resources says it remains bullish on commercial property sectors, "because institutionally we understand that while the US economy is changing, the people and economic institutions continue to be innovative and enthusiastic."

In fact, IRR is predicting "a positive impact" on rents, occupancy and values due to increased job creation. As evidence, IRR's annual Viewpoint 2016 report cites the continued "robust" pace of cross-border investment into US CRE, currently double the pace of 2005. That pace will be maintained as "home office wealth" continues to migrate family money directly into US real estate investment.

IRR's report sees tailwinds for all five of the major food groups. Office, for example, is seen as benefiting from broader economic trends, while a dearth of new construction has worked in favor of continued rent growth. Accordingly, IRR predicts that 18.6% of US markets will experience CBD class A value increases of at least 4% this year, compared with 8.5% for CBD class B, 65% for suburban class A and 3.2% for suburban class B.

CBD office cap rates are expected to compress nationally across both class A and B assets by 19 and 20 basis points, respectively, while suburban office cap rates will compress by 23 bps for class A and 17 bps for class B. There will be markets that diverge from these averages: Houston is expecting to see suburban office cap rates rise up to 50 bps, while Philadelphia will see cap rates to decline by up to 50 bps.

For multifamily, IRR predicts that 88.7% of markets can expect value increases in the next 12 months. The exceptions will be cities adversely affected by oil price drops, such as Houston.

Investor interest in apartments is expected to remain keen, as well, thanks to pent-up demand, the preference for renting over buying and the need to replace pent-up inventory. Ninety-three percent of markets are currently in an expansion phase, with Atlanta, Raleigh and Washington, DC all exhibiting "hyper-supply conditions," according to IRR.

The company says retail remains "an opportunity investment," as recovery in rents and occupancies have been more measured, though steadily improving. Strong housing growth and improvement in consumer confidence favor retail this year, except in markets that rely heavily on international tourist sales.

Over the next 36 months, 55% of retail markets domestically are expected to experience annual rent growth rates of 1% to 3%, IRR says. Sixty-eight percent will see cap rates remain constant over the next year. The remaining 27% expect marginal decreases.

Currently an investor's darling, industrial will face "many challenges" in '16, according to IRR. Chief among these is global headwinds on trade owing to the continued strength of the US dollar. "Primary U.S. logistic distribution hubs will perform well on the back of increased retail distribution activity domestically," the report states.

However, it's the hospitality market that faces the biggest risks in 2016, IRR says. "The industry is segmented, so generalizations about the impact of inbound international tourism might be hyperbole. But a strong US dollar also favors American travel abroad," which would pose an even bigger threat to ADRs across almost every sector of hotels.