NEW YORK CITY—The workload and output at real estate firms increased in 2015, but most industry professionals don't anticipate a commensurate increase in hiring this year. "In 2016, help is not on the way," according to locally based SelectLeaders, which powers the GlobeSt.com Career Center and which has just issued its 2016 Real Estate Hiring Trends Survey.
Conducted among industry members ranging from job candidates to managers and HR executives, SelectLeaders' survey found that 67% of respondents believe the "pace of business" and their associated amount of work and output rose last year. Similarly, 75% predict that the pace of hiring will either remain the same or decrease this year.
One factor is a shortage of talent: "Hiring people with skill sets needed to succeed in commercial real estate has become increasingly difficult in our market," according to one respondent. Another predicted aslight increase in wages "because the job market is stronger and it's harder to find talented people."
Based on the comments of some survey respondents, underpinning the increase in the pace of business is uncertainty and volatility in the marketplace and a desire to make hay while the sun shines. "I want all of my borrowers focused on getting their projects out of the ground and delivering to market timely... as we lend at floating rates," one respondent commented. Another acknowledged being "nervous we are nearing the end of the cycle, and hesitant to start a new project that delivers in three to four years."
On a more optimistic note, 70% of respondents to SelectLeaders' survey expect their total compensation—including salary, commission and bonus—to increase in '16. This expectation is based on recent experience: 62% received a bonus the previous year, while 58% reported an increase in salary and/or commissions in 2015.
Looking at the macro environment, 49% of respondents rated the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases—including those that are likely to occur this year—as the factor creating the greatest uncertainty. "Fed tightening has created an inflationary market in real estate and construction which is driving living (via housing) to a dangerously high level," one respondent commented. "Ultimately it will reduce our national standard of living."
Whether the next President is a Democrat or Republican, most survey respondents don't have much faith in his or her ability to make a difference. Seventy-four percent said the Presidential race and election will not affect their business, although comments suggest that the lack of impact isn't a good thing. "The Presidential candidates do not inspire confidence," according to one respondent. Another called for "a sweeping replacement of our leaders in DC and a focus on the economy and getting our country in a growth mode."
However, SelectLeaders survey respondents offered a number of optimistic and cautiously optimistic comments, as well. In the end, according to one, "Everything will be about your own attitude and making sure you hire and retain and grow the right people." Click here to access the complete results of this year's Hiring Trends Survey.
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