SAN DIEGO—When looking at the different sectors, Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group, says that specialty apparel has more disparate prospects than in the past. The keynote speaker at the recent ICSC Western Division Deal Making conference, held here last week, says that growth drivers are brand enhancement, product innovation, multi-channel, global expansion, and infrastructure investment. “Teen retailers are under particular pressure as fast fashion retailers continue to resonate.”

A couple key retail trends in 2016 she pointed to include the following:

*the growth in e-commerce and m-commerce is disrupting market share.

*new technologies are changing retailer priorities and consumer shopping behavior.

And brick-and-mortar is critical to the omni-channel ecosystem, she explained. “Growth through alternative distribution channels has allowed retailers to build stronger brand awareness than would be possible purely through stores. That said, a retailer's brick-and-mortar presence enables consumers to experience its brand in ways other channels cannot.”

Telsey then took a closer look at how the retail sectors are faring.

Department Stores: “They are losing share to off-price retailers, specialty stores, discounters, and e-commerce,” said Telsey. “They are evaluating the store portfolio for productivity and beginning to close underperforming locations, while expanding into off price concepts. Multi-channel platforms are key.”

Off-price retail: She said that off-price retail is well-positioned for shift in consumer attitudes toward value. “It is opening new doors, in early stages of e-commerce and offering more brands,” she said.

Hardlines retail: “We are expecting solid housing trends to continue in 2016. Retailers focused on the home should continue to ride the positive momentum,” she said, adding that omni-channel remains a priority, despite a lack of significant online penetration.

Discounters: She said that discounters are well-positioned as lower-income consumers continue to face macroeconomic uncertainty. “International growth is key for top-line growth. They remain early in the development of e-commerce and omni-channel distribution.”

Food retail: With modest food inflation, continued growth at natural and organic grocers, and erosion of pricing power at the high-end, near-term she said, industry volume trends remain under pressure due to stiffer competition.

Luxury goods: She said that luxury goods are experiencing a slower industry growth rate given tourist weakness and continued Asia malaise. “Product innovation is aiding handbag sales, while jewelry trends remain solid, and watches continue to underperform.” She said that there is a greater focus on store remodels than acceleration in square footage growth.

Footwear: Sales trends in athletic footwear remain robust and are continuing in 2016, says Telsey. “The pendulum is swinging towards sport, and style away from technical. Inventory is under control and should result in better margins than last year.”

Activewear: The activewear category growth is “leading to impressive sales gains that we expect to continue.”

A couple key retail trends in 2016 she pointed to include the following:

*the growth in e-commerce and m-commerce is disrupting market share.

*new technologies are changing retailer priorities and consumer shopping behavior.

Telsey then took a closer look at how the retail sectors are faring.

Activewear: The activewear category growth is “leading to impressive sales gains that we expect to continue.”

Instant Insights /

Specialty Apparel Has More Disparate Prospects Than in the Past

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